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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
, 27 tweets, 10 min read Read on Twitter
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly Recap wk32 as of 09Aug19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n

• RiskOFF mode
• China allowed CNY to weaken
• safe haven rally bonds/gold/JPY
• creditspreads wider
• volatile stocks with some V-shaped intra-week rebound
• 10 further CB's cut rates!
2/n update Global Markets YTD as of wk32
3/n update Global Markets performance WoW, MoM, YTD, YoY as of wk32
4/n update FX matrix wk32

• JPY bid on safe haven rally
• CNY allowed to weaken across the board (exports to all = #CurrencyWar )
• TRY top performer as pressure eases (for now)
• NZD (small intra-week rebound) but weak after higher than exp 50bp cut by RBNZ
5/n FX VOLA heatmap as of wk32

the triple headline FED tiny 25bp "insurance cut" /Trump additional 10% on $300bln China exports to US /PBoC "response" of letting CNY weaker rattled FX volatility board (although kinda cooled down by end of wk)
6/n Global 10Y Govt heatmap update wk32

hallelujah - bonds know trouble ahead...

Italy the outlier as Salvini made some more headlines. (see my Bart chalkboard joke the other day)
7/n Global Yields 2Y 10Y curve wk32

• Brazil got upgraded 1 notch
• 10 Central Banks (!) cut rates this week incl RBNZ -50bp, RBI -35bp, Thailand, Philippines both -25bp
• massive bond bull flattening and this continues to smell trouble
8/n Credit market moved, but don't show distress levels

• ITRAXX Main & Xover
• ITRAXX Financials Sen & Sub
• CDX IG & HY
9/n China's response led to a spike in stocks vola = sample VIX & VSTOXX but reversed from peak intraweek as some fast money covered short stocks/long vola theme
10/n US rates market update: swap curves

• bull flattening this week again
• most worrisome is 2s5s, making new lows = that market tells us is getting worse without fearmongering. SWP 2s5s got more inverted.
11/n a log chart on purpose to visualise the velocity ... US govvies outright yields continue to fall ... and make some people wonder if this is really a mid cycle adjustment / insurance cut by FED or if this long stretched cycle has indeed turned
12/n 1999-2001, 2006-2008 late cycles compared with current one...as yields keep falling sharply and curve keep flattening (incl inversions), there is no doubt, mkt is pricing in the economy is getting worse not better.Obviously it's mostly about China-US trade war,but not only
13/n ...ergo, plenty more FED cuts are coming. Trump doesn't even have to pressure FOMC.
14/n update on my "tongue-in-cheek" yieldcurve vs VIX chart

as I have been posting this for ages, if (IF) this is true, I always thought 2019 H2 will have higher implied stock vola...

trigger ?? perhaps it seems it could be China... trade war + HK is getting out of hands
15/n NMI came out. just wanted to point out, employment survey was good and the weighted number with ISM suggest further job growth... but...
16/n ...but... did JOLTS [maybe] roll over ? 5th consecutive month below peak... UE rate moved from 3.6 to 3.7. Not leading indicators, but deffo a must to watch as they reflect cycles.
17/n and it all comes together again... UE rate vs yieldcurve... the FED must and will re-steepen the curve. and THAT is usually accompanied with a stock market roll over... sooner or later...and I am not even a perma-bear, just a bond guy
18/n ...hence no comment on this... just a snapshot as of wk32
19/n quick glance towards Australia... which is battling with global / China slowdown and their housing issues ... after ok-sh Manufacturing PMI, the Services and Construction PMIs were yet again horrendous... oh, they wanted to diversify from mining to services ? mmh...
20/n one more Australia chart: China slowdown, housing slowdown = international and domestic growth problems continue... yields fall , yieldcurve flattening, AUDUSD tanks... RBA dovish, and will cut more than the current 1%. Technicals AUDUSD different matter. Or FED cuts 100bp?
21/n oh, one more... Inflation expectation DIFFERENTIAL between Australia and US ... vs FX spot...
22/n different subject ... #Krosa is approaching in Taifun season... be safe
23/n last but not least ...

now I’ve seen it all ! 😂😂🤣

• “instrument equality”
• “manipulate culture of the instrument “
• “be more creative, more brave”

#RapingMusicalInstruments
24/n next week on the radar

• CPI Europe, US
• GDP EU
• ZEW
• NY empire, Philli Fed
• UoM flash
• US permits
• JP machinery tool orders
• Norges
25/n thats all folks, enjoy the beautiful rest of the Sunday and a great week ahead.
26/end @threadreaderapp unroll
@threadreaderapp 27/end end ;-) Global Markets Momentum / Trend / Exhaustion scores as of wk32 ... someone reminded me I forgot. ( probably the other one who noticed LOL )
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More from @MacroTechnicals see all

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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly Recap wk33 as of 16Aug19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n

• huge Yo-Yo but RiskOff week
• Tariff/Yldcurve/R-word headline sentiment
• stocks closed weak, bonds hot
• ZEW weak
• US permits better
• Mexico cut rates, Norges unch
• NZ PMI 48.2
2/n before I continue... YIELDCURVE INVERTED DID YOU KNOW ?????
3/n update Global Markets YTD as of wk33

• but this week was a YoYo of rare :

• VIX 18/22/18/24/18
• DOW 1200 points range
• NDX -3%/+3.5%/-5%/+3%
• UB and BUXL 11/12 points range
• Crude +7%/-7%/+2%
• Silver +4%/-5%/+5%-2%

on RiskOnOff headlines Trump/China/YldCurve
Read 23 tweets
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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
monthly ZEW Aug2019 Analysts' surveys vs Markets recap 1/11

• Financial analysts expecting much worse global economic outlook

• this thread will show charts of Europe & Germany ZEW vs $STOXX , #SX7E Banksector, $DAX , $FGBL Bund yields, Germany 2s5s yieldcurve, $EURUSD
2/11 Europe ZEW collapsing

... and IFO, ESI , M.PMIs , S.PMIs will most likely weaker too on continues global trade war uncertainty, Italy woes again, Brexit too will hurt Eurzone
3/11 well telegraphed... ECB obviously returned to dovish camp, possible rate cuts, QE, tiering deposit rates for banks...
Read 13 tweets
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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
“don’t cry for me, liquidity” 🇦🇷

fronrunner Macri now behind in the latest poll, sell-off $ARGT -24% , MERV -38% and Peso -16%

sometimes a reminder of small (AUM $100mln) ETF liquidity “if you need it”... like a hot knife through frozen butter moving averages 1/6
2/6 probability of another debt restructuring/ default

USDARS chart Peso intraday selloff
3/6 $ARGT ETF
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David Jensen
@RealDavidJensen
@EmmaMuhleman1 @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @SantiagoAuFund @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @Halsrethink @AndrewBellBNN @JayTaylorMedia @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @TFMetals @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble One important difference in the cycles is that low interest rates steadily build-in distortion to the economy over time while the tightening cycle (esp. a rapid tighten) precipitates failures that quickly cascade through the economy. Criticality theory.

#EndTheFed
@EmmaMuhleman1 @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @SantiagoAuFund @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @Halsrethink @AndrewBellBNN @JayTaylorMedia @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @TFMetals @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble "I speak to more than a dozen ceos every single week. They all had high hopes. No longer."

"It changed in the last six weeks."

Anecdotes, but expected.

The Fed builds dysfunction into the economy with low rates - it shows when rates rise.

#EndTheFed

cnbc.com/2018/10/09/cra…
@EmmaMuhleman1 @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @SantiagoAuFund @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @Halsrethink @AndrewBellBNN @JayTaylorMedia @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @TFMetals @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble Cramer's relay of plunging CEO sentiment fits w/ sudden dive in Consumer Metrics 'Weighted Composite Index' starting in September.

consumerindexes.com

A sharp break to be expected after years of zero Fed rate and then increased Fed rates. Criticality Theory.

#bonds #gold
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