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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
When I look at the long-term chart of the CRB Commodity Index, it really does have deflationary bust written all over it. We are around the key support (like so many other things - many of which have started breaking)...
I know many of you like to see these HUGE charts in log scales, so here it is... it looks even worse... commodity prices can more than halve from here.
It's probably all down to this chart of the ADXY (Asian currency index) which has Asian currency crisis (dollar spike) written all over it and is the probably source of the deflation. It has broken down.
I can not stress how important this all is. Dollar strength is first going to kill EM but in the end it's going to kill the US. This is going to play out in its entirety over the coming 24 months, probably.
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More from @RaoulGMI see all

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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
A Currency Crisis?

When the long-term charts all start pointing to a single event risk, I pay attention.

When those charts are at the KEY level, I focus.

And when they break, it is time for action...

Something really BIG is going on...
We are at the most important juncture in FX markets in my entire 30 year career. The dollar appears at risk of an uncontrolled rise.

Let me show you...
The Fed Broad Trade Weighted Dollar Index is incredibly close to breaking the ENORMOUS cup and handle pattern at 130. Barely a half a percent away...
Read 21 tweets
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
China was the first place to signal to me that the world had gone from reflation to disinflation back in Spring 2018, asset after asset followed suit thereafter. China bounced somewhat this year but it now rolling over...
The Shanghai Comp has formed a smaller degree GMI Crash Pattern (a dramatic sounding failed rally) and will confirm on any prices lower than here. It would suggest that the market backdrop is again moving from benign to more risk averse.
The most likely knock on effect is the break of 7 in the RMB (which will be falling in line with RoW FX markets vs dollars - remember the RMB is a basket)
Read 12 tweets
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
My weekly public notice. Spanish banks keep plummeting... Banco Sabadell, new all time low at 80c and down 99% from peak.
And Bankia, which is mainly state owned, is also at a new all time low...seems the state bailout failed.
And in case you weren't aware, Bankia is already down 99%.
Read 4 tweets

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Macro Charts
@MacroCharts
Thoughts on the Dollar:

$DXY formed a topping candle last week.

When global markets panicked in May (same concerns over hawkish Fed & Trade War), DXY barely moved.

Definitely doesn't help that $USDJPY and $USDCHF (combined 17.2% weight in DXY) are collapsing in risk-off.
Thoughts on the Dollar (continued):

$DXY daily sentiment hit 94 last week, among the highest in three decades (top 99.30%).

The majority of extreme high readings (particularly since 2000) led to a Dollar top, with the exception of late 2014.
...Further on $DXY, this rally is nothing like late 2014.

Since May 2018 this has been a labored, low-momentum advance littered with false breakouts.

Every sentiment spike led to chop for weeks/months.

Last week sentiment got high again and what happened… another reversal.
Read 9 tweets
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
Vacation time 🙂I'm currently in beautiful Oregon, US. Been flying, rafting, hiking, eating and playing with the kids - great time! Now - small break to update myself on the markets. Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
Where the #USD goes, rest of the market follows! Getting the direction of USD right is key. This is how I see #DXY short term. Further downside to develop - with target ~95.0. This is likely a major bottom - before DXY explodes higher #HZupdates
Following the ST weakness in #DXY, I think we will see much higher levels coming , as the shortage of USDs in the financial system becomes very clear. The target remains 107-109 - pot. higher to be reached some time around Mid-2020 #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
Good morning all! 🙂 Morning in Copenhagen - listening to Ludovico while I'm updating analyses and family sleeps. Fantastic piece of music: #AllisGood
Time for some #HZupdates. Let's take a look at the market from the way I see it. Where is that deflation, I have been forecasting? Did CBs succeed to do their magic and eliminate that threat? What about the Kondratiev's winter - over/done? Stay tuned! 🙂
AUDUSD is inflation gauge. Rally=inflation up; Decline=inflation down. LT perspective looks like this. Decline in 2008 = wave A. Rally up to 2011 = wave B. We have since been in wave C. Wave 5 will take us to ~0.5. Note the horizontal line. When this goes -->free fall #HZupdates
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Shay Castle
@shayshinecastle
Guess what time it is (again)? PRAIRIE DOGS!
The pdog and ag folks have trickled back in, no doubt after dinner and (hopefully) some drinks.
This part of the memo was a slog to get through. But I had to, bc all the $$ bits were sprinkled throughout a lot of open space and planning jargon.
I did it for you, #Boulder. Bc I love you.
Read 183 tweets
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♈🅰️⤴️™
@MATRIBHUMISEVAK
For those who doubted @narendramodi 's Pakistan policy, let me share details of data of Pakistan Senate Committee on "Indian policy impact on Pakistan economy - Paper1". This data was sent to LUMS for regulatory measures to stabilize Pak economy from where it was leaked.
1/×
2/×
Points to note.
1. Circular debt rose 1.6 times since Modi came to power. Real debacle started from 2017.
2. Pak Rupee fell to 145. Expected to fell another 30% at 180.
3. Tax collection fell by 485 billion Pak rupees due to shut down of businesses as they could not compete.
3/×
4. PSU suffered loses of 1100 billion Pakistani rupees due to non availability of power & raw materials. India denied them iron ore, cotton, engineering goods, processed fibers etc. Major sufferers were Pakistan Steel Mill, Itefaq foundry, Pak Airlines and textile industries.
Read 58 tweets
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Traders8
@Traders82
#Chapter2 : Trend Trading .

Traders first priority is to take a trade basis the trend. Trend in simple terms means, following the direction of the Market.

Which also means, being with the forces who create the direction, who drive the prices, who move the market, SmartMoney.
What is Smart Money ?

Traders Small or Big who buy or sell in large quantities and have the money power to play with prices by buying or selling at important price points.

They decide if the Price is Undervalued for a Buying Opportunity or Over Valued for Selling Opportunity.
As the Buying or Selling happens in Bulk, their Profitability depends on How far they can push the price, so that they can cover whole of their orders with out loosing much.

They have the power to hold positions and keep rolling it over for Years or Decades if they decide to do.
Read 73 tweets

Trending hashtags

#GDP #ClimateFixers #Yields #spx #DXY #ClimateAlarmists #climate #Chart #Deutschebank #Oil #Hong #AUDUSD #TDF2019 #Security #Chart2 #Commodities #Himalayas #EmergingMarkets #Forgetaboutit #Bonds #deflationary #DEBT #china #DNC #DAX
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