Thread by @HenrikZeberg

Vacation time 🙂I'm currently in beautiful Oregon, US. Been flying, rafting, hiking, eating and playing with the kids - great time! Now - small break to update myself on the markets. Stay tuned for some #HZupdates

Where the #USD goes, rest of the market follows! Getting the direction of USD right is key. This is how I see #DXY short term. Further downside to develop - with target ~95.0. This is likely a major bottom - before DXY explodes higher #HZupdates

Following the ST weakness in #DXY, I think we will see much higher levels coming , as the shortage of USDs in the financial system becomes very clear. The target remains 107-109 - pot. higher to be reached some time around Mid-2020 #HZupdates

The strong #USD will cause #Oil to decline. Target remains <20 USD to be reached some time Mid-2020. The coming decline in Oil bears witness of a Global Recession and a strong DEFLATIONARY environment, which will bring out some Black Swan events #HZupdates

The coming Global Recession is also visible in #Copper, which for now sits on the trendline. When this breaks, a major decline will set in with target around levels from 2008 - pot. much lower. DEFLATIONARY! #HZupdates

#CRB also flashing DEFLATIONARY developments ahead - which will be part of a Global Recession. Again, large decline could set in soon - finalizing the expected price developments in the major Ending Diagonal #HZupdates

Inflation gauge #AUDUSD has been forming a Wedge, which gave us a Throw-over - before turning back down. This could very likely indicate the beginning of the next strong leg lower in this pair i.e. next phase in the DEFLATIONARY environment #HZupdates

On the LT chart, I still see #AUDUSD <0.50 before LT-bottom. This is DEFLATIONARY and will be developing as part of a #GlobalRecession. And developments will start to play out REALLY SOON now imo #HZupdates

#Wheat - just an example of the #Commodities which will see another leg down. Same structure - Ending Diagonal - which gives us 1 last DEFLATIONARY BUST before the SECULAR BOTTOM is in #HZupdates

So #Commodities are flashing #DEFLATION ahead supported by a pot. strong rise in #USD to set in soon. Does #Equities support this view? YES! We have come to the top of the ENDING EXPANDING DIAGONAL = BEARISH STOCKS! We could still see a Throw-over - before the reversal #HZupdates

Also #VIX suggests, that we are close to a significant top in #Equities. We could still see Throw-over in VIX - however, RSI divergence suggests, that a shift is coming. I see a pot. rally in VIX as of major importance, as the DEFLATIONARY environment plays out #HZupdates

#Gold Bugs are ecstatic! But this is not a new Gold Bull market. As #DEFLATION sets in, Gold will get crushed in the Dash-for-Cash-environment. We have a major ZigZag-pattern to top either at 1484ish or 1590ish. LT-bottom will be ~940 - or pot. a spike lower to ~800 #HZupdates

#Silver has not been rallying with Gold. Currently back-testing LT-trendline - likely to turn down hard soon as deflationary environment sets in #HZupdates

#Goldminers have not been supporting #Gold rally. Seems like a pot. Triangle, which could turn here, or at a little higher level. LT-target ~10.0 USD as DEFLATIONARY BUST plays out #HZupdates

Summarizing: We are on the verge of the next leg down in the deflationary environment. It will get really ugly and developments will happen fast. Everything will be sold off to get #USD. I expect deflationary environment to develop into Mid-2020, where Fed finally... #HZupdates

will set in for real. Forget about rate cuts!! This will NOT be enough and will NOT prevent DEFLATIONARY environment or events to develop. At some point, we will see #QExtreme or #HelicopterMoney which will put in a secular bottom for #Commodities and hence push... #HZupdates

the world into a new #EconomicRegime which will be STAGFLATION. This will be the worst part of the crisis, as CBs will have NO TOOLS to fight higher inflation, as the global economic growth stagnates. This will crush #equities and send #gold skyrocketing #HZupdates

Not until the real issue is solved = #DEBT, will we see the world start to grow again. This solution is 4-6 years down the road, and a lot of pain will be endured before we get to that point. Staying on the right side of events will be crucial for any investor #HZupdates

All from #HZupdates for now! DEFLATIONARY EVENTS about to unfold! Stay safe!!