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9 tweets,
4 min read
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1 of 9/
Trump just mapped out his latest plan to impose tariffs on roughly $300 billion of Chinese imports over this fall.
My latest looks in depth at the tariff and trade data
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
Trump just mapped out his latest plan to impose tariffs on roughly $300 billion of Chinese imports over this fall.
My latest looks in depth at the tariff and trade data
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
2 of 9/
On September 1, Trump will hit China with a 10% tariff on a new set of $112 billion of imports.
These tariffs will target a lot of clothing and shoes. These sectors are mostly untouched by Trump's tariffs to date...
On September 1, Trump will hit China with a 10% tariff on a new set of $112 billion of imports.
These tariffs will target a lot of clothing and shoes. These sectors are mostly untouched by Trump's tariffs to date...
3 of 9/
On December 15, Trump will hit China with 10% tariffs on ANOTHER new set of $160 billion of imports.
These tariffs will hit a lot of toys and consumer electronics - iPhones, Fitbits, video game consoles. These sectors have also been mostly untouched by Trump's tariffs.
On December 15, Trump will hit China with 10% tariffs on ANOTHER new set of $160 billion of imports.
These tariffs will hit a lot of toys and consumer electronics - iPhones, Fitbits, video game consoles. These sectors have also been mostly untouched by Trump's tariffs.
4 of 9/
Note the interesting TIMING, by the two product lists:
(1) The import surge for the December holidays shopping is usually *IN OCTOBER* each year.
By choosing Dec 15 for the first tariffs on smartphones, toys and video games, Trump may avoid THAT consumer backlash...
Note the interesting TIMING, by the two product lists:
(1) The import surge for the December holidays shopping is usually *IN OCTOBER* each year.
By choosing Dec 15 for the first tariffs on smartphones, toys and video games, Trump may avoid THAT consumer backlash...
5 of 9/
Note the interesting TIMING, by the two product lists (cont):
(2) A smaller import surge for back-to-school shopping is IN AUGUST each year.
Sept 1 for tariffs on clothes & shoes - remember the June 29, G20 decision to delay tariffs? - avoids THAT consumer backlash...
Note the interesting TIMING, by the two product lists (cont):
(2) A smaller import surge for back-to-school shopping is IN AUGUST each year.
Sept 1 for tariffs on clothes & shoes - remember the June 29, G20 decision to delay tariffs? - avoids THAT consumer backlash...
6 of 9/
Interestingly, timing the tariff rollout to avoid the consumer backlash is an implicit recognition that AMERICAN CONSUMERS are likely to bear the tariff burden - through higher paid prices
(it may not be borne by Chinese firms, through lower received prices, after all)
Interestingly, timing the tariff rollout to avoid the consumer backlash is an implicit recognition that AMERICAN CONSUMERS are likely to bear the tariff burden - through higher paid prices
(it may not be borne by Chinese firms, through lower received prices, after all)
7 of 9/
...overall, Trump has sharply INCREASED US tariffs on China:
• Jan 1, 2018: 3.1%
• Sept 23, 2018: 12.4%
• May 10, 2019: 18.3%
• Sept 1, 2019: 20.0%
• Dec 15, 2019: 21.4%
...overall, Trump has sharply INCREASED US tariffs on China:
• Jan 1, 2018: 3.1%
• Sept 23, 2018: 12.4%
• May 10, 2019: 18.3%
• Sept 1, 2019: 20.0%
• Dec 15, 2019: 21.4%
8 of 9/
Even more important for these next two rounds of tariffs is the MASSIVE increase in scope of PRODUCT COVERAGE.
Share of US imports from China covered by special tariffs:
• Jan 1, 2018: 8.1%
• Sept 23, 2018: 50.6%
• Sept 1, 2019: 68.5%
• Dec 15, 2019: 96.8%
Even more important for these next two rounds of tariffs is the MASSIVE increase in scope of PRODUCT COVERAGE.
Share of US imports from China covered by special tariffs:
• Jan 1, 2018: 8.1%
• Sept 23, 2018: 50.6%
• Sept 1, 2019: 68.5%
• Dec 15, 2019: 96.8%
9 of 9/
The REALLY bad news?
President Trump may be settling in. There are new plans to impose lots more tariffs, and no plans to roll back any of them.
ENDS/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
The REALLY bad news?
President Trump may be settling in. There are new plans to impose lots more tariffs, and no plans to roll back any of them.
ENDS/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
