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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
, 6 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
1. Remember that #EmissionsGap, where 2°C pathways required 41-47GtCO₂-eq in 2020 & emission policies would lead to an Emissions Gap of 8-13GtCO₂?

Now GHG emissions are ~55GtCO₂ (2019). What happened to the gap from 2012?

unenvironment.org/resources/emis…
2. Current emissions are now "on-track" for 1.5°C & 2°C in 2020 (no gap), but the gap now lies in 2030...

Is 2°C harder? Or have model developments & CO₂ removal made it "easier"?

And how to communicate a lost decade of mitigation?

unenvironment.org/resources/emis…
3. Oliver Geden brought this point up a few years ago: "...it will always be ‘five minutes to midnight’, although global emissions are still not decreasing" @Oliver_Geden

nature.com/articles/s4156…
4. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report had a group of scenarios with no policy until 2030, then went to 2°C (blue). They have the same mitigation as today's 1.5°C scenarios (purple).

How long will 2°C remain feasible? Could we get to 2°C starting in 2040?

slideshare.net/GlenPeters_CIC…
5. There was a Gap Report in 2010, but the figure was a little too old school for me...
unenvironment.org/resources/emis…
6. How can we avoid the issue of "shifting baselines" or "it is always 5 minutes to midnight"? Can climate policy ever fail? When is it possible to say 1.5°C is not possible?

Questions, no answers...
slideshare.net/GlenPeters_CIC…

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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
It is amazing how little the global energy system has progressed in 70 years. This Sankey diagram, from 1952, looks almost identical today (in aggregate terms)!

Efficiency (primary to final energy) was 35% in 1952, today it is about 40%. Today has much more gas than 1952.

1/
It is interesting to see how oil & gas seem to replace coal in the energy system (the growth of coal was much higher until 1910 when oil & gas came along).

You can see how the energy system has grown since 1950...

2/
For the energy needs, here are the statistics for 1952... Human labour is included with draft animals in agriculture!

3/
Read 4 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
1. Global CO₂ emissions from land-use change are stable at ~5GtCO₂/yr (large uncertainty).

How can this be of true if "tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km²" (+7.1% since 1982)?

Because there is forest loss in the tropics but gains elsewhere.

nature.com/articles/s4158…
2. Land-use change is complex, with time & area dynamics:
* Gross deforestation is actually ~10GtCO₂, so huge (& cheap) gains from stopping deforestation.
* Forest sinks also increase (green) because trees are fertilized with fossil CO₂ emissions!

science.sciencemag.org/content/333/60…
3. I reacted to this tweet by @ShellenbergerMD. I sympathize with his points about media exaggeration, but... Tropical deforestation is a huge problem, the gains are not in the tropics & often because of natural regeneration & CO₂ fertilization.
Read 5 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Consumption growth (green) has had a much greater impact on the EU carbon footprint than the offshoring of production, with technological improvements reducing emissions (blue).

The focus should be on enacting change, not the global impact of trade!

1/
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
Trade in both directions (imports and exports) is important for the manufacturing sector. The data does not support claims of wholesale ‘de-industrialisation’ but rather reflects increased trade intensity related to specialization.

2/
Several (but not all) of the major sources of net embodied imports are largely unavoidable consequences of European consumption because the primary production activities (e.g. mining and significant shares of agricultural) could not realistically occur within the EU.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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Ben See
@ClimateBen
Remember:

1) 1.3°C today
2) 1.5°C by 2023
3) 2°C by 2030-36
4) 3°C by 2040s
5) 4°C by 2055

'By 2055, climate change is likely to have warmed the world by a dangerous 4°C* unless we stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere the way we do now' (2009)

*end of civilisation
We're currently at ~1.3C using the 1750 baseline. Video:

+ here:


1.5°C in 2023 = a one off.

But 1.5°C as a sustained trend in the following years looks highly likely (remember baselines complicate things).
'Australian researchers say a global tracker monitoring energy use per person points to 2C warming by 2030.'

This article is from 3 years ago, and energy demand is shooting up not going down (see next tweet). 👇

theguardian.com/environment/20…
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Thea Riofrancos
@triofrancos
Barring major changes in consumption habits, a world powered by renewable energy is a world of dramatically intensified mining - cobalt, copper, lithium, rare earths - and, as a result, ecosystem destruction & human rights violations (1)
grist.org/article/report…
Renewable energy isn't "clean" unless your carbon accounting starts & ends at electricity grids. Broaden your perspective, & each element of the renewable transition - EVs, energy storage, wind turbines - relies on multiple extractive frontiers (2)
I am currently in Chile conducting research on lithium -- the demand for which will grow to 280% of current reserves in a 100% renewables scenario. In South America, lithium is extracted from water-scarce salt flats, home to endemic species & indigenous communities (3)
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Christian Oliveira
@christian_wilde
Until now, the only SEO space where AMP was kind of "mandatory" was on news: if you want to appear on the "Top stories" box, you kind of need to have your articles to use AMP. You can appear there withouth AMP, but you don't get the same visual benefits #AMP #SEO .
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#Remember
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@lorraineelizab6
Cú Chulainn is believed to be an incarnation of the god #Lugh, who is also his father! His mother is the mortal Deichtine, sister of Conchobar mac Nessa, the King of #Ulster who ruled from #NavanFort near #Armagh. #CúChulainn #Irishmyths #Irishlegends #FolkloreThursday
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