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In contrast to UK, there’s no sense of panic or crisis in EU regarding #Brexit - whether over the question of suspending parliament or the fact that no deal looks to leaders the most likely outcome now /1
On suspending Parliament the European Commission’s public response as ever is that it “won’t comment on the internal politics of another country” (Though sometimes it clearly does ..) /2
EU in watch and wait mode. EU leaders see no point in huddling in dark room re-thinking the backstop right now - This next act in the #Brexit drama is being played out in UK. It’s about domestic politics /3
BUT while EU thinks no deal is most likely outcome, key figures I speak to see a small window of opportunity for a deal. They look to the PM who has managed to persuade them that he would much rather leave with a deal even though he’ll pursue no deal if sees no way round it /4
Thoughts of some I speak to in Brussels: “Is the PM trying to bounce his parliamentary opponents into taking action against him in order to enable him to be able to say an election is inevitable and that it needs to be held calmly SO .. /5
While pointing a finger of blame at his “anti-democratic” opponents, might the PM hope to say that with a “heavy heart” he must ask for another #Brexit extension to hold an election?” The PM and D Cummings viewed as many things in Brussels but not as no deal zealots /6
Without a new extension - more time- and without the PM having more parliamentary support (something he hopes to get via an election) to get a #Brexit deal approved .. EU doesn’t think a new EU/UK agreement at all realistic (and even then, it wouldn’t be a walk in the park!) /7
EU not holding its breath that anti-no deal and anti Brexit MP’s will work effectively together. Seen as v divided. Any EU (faint) hope of a deal rests right now with PM- his ambition to go down well in history books. EU believes he views no deal as far from ideal /8
EU leaders of course still prefer to avoid no deal #Brexit but they are mentally prepared and there’s no clamouring from voters, big business in EU to make huge compromises to get deal with UK. Eg German biggest business lobby BDI backs EU position uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri… /9
