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There is a growing misunderstanding afoot. The PM can’t just call an election any more. Not Boris, nor any other. That hasn’t been possible since the passage of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (2011). Now if they want one, two thirds of all MPs have to agree first. (1)
That’s 434 of them. If 217 MPs object, no general election, and this Parliament limps on until June 9, 2022. Boris could indeed table a dissolution vote under the Act if he fears legislation that blocks No Deal is about to be passed, and insist the people should decide that. (2)
But under any calculation, he needs a lot of Labour votes - and therefore Jeremy Corbyn’s support - to succeed. Would Corbyn really fancy his chances against Boris, who will paint it as Leave v Remain again, with Labour’s Brexit policy such a confused mess? (3)
Or, would Corbyn whip against an immediate election to insist one should only be held after No Deal legislation is passed a few weeks later, giving him a chance to detoxify the Brexit issue a little and allowing him to fight more on his favoured ground of austerity? (4)
Sure, it’s a terrible look for the Leader of the Opposition to be running scared from an election he’s spent two years pleading for. But so is electoral oblivion and the almost certain loss of his job afterwards. My bet, for what it’s worth, is he baulks (5)
Moral of the tale: as a minister told me last week, if you can’t command a majority in Parliament (which, in British politics, is sovereign), you can’t be sure of controlling events. Hence, Boris’s decision to prorogue. (6)
