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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
So this Conservative Party General Election manifesto.

No deal? Gets Brexit Party votes, seems extreme, disaster in remain areas, also future of car industry etc

Deal preferred. Brexit Party stands on pure no-deal platform, remain suspicious.

Not so straightforward is it?
As many are pointing out the Labour Party election manifesto isn't exactly obvious either. Likely to be we'll negotiate a new deal with the EU then recommend the country reject it in a referendum.
Meanwhile both Labour and Conservative will be playing populist cards to cover up their confused Brexit policies and unpopular leaders (don't write, I know Johnson less than Corbyn). Will not be edifying.

Predictions seem difficult on this basis.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Wonder whether anyone in Number 10 is familiar with Healey's 1st law of holes?

When you're in one stop digging.
Has been one bad decision after another - prorogue, mislead (repeatedly), lose, expel, fail (to get an election).

Too much hubris, too little listening.
At the heart of the matter - the Conservative Party cannot be both the party of no-deal (maximise Brexit Party votes) and deal (maximise traditional business Conservative votes).

And efforts to do so stretch credibility beyond breaking point.
Read 7 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The kind of cunning Johnson plan that has failed every time so far. Whilst it seems unlikely that anti no-dealers could reach agreement on a new PM in time, they appear to be working well enough together that it might just happen.

Didn't work too well for Salvini after all.
If they no-confidence themselves it really is government as game show. Its scarcely surprising that relatively sane Conservative MPs want out if there's a chance they have to go through 5 years of this week's immaturity pretending to be government.
It occurs to me that if the Government were to no-confidence themselves all opposition parties should just stay out of the chamber and say that they refuse to take part in such an absolute charade.

And by the way we're meeting over the road to work out who the next PM will be.
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Great analysis - negotiations fell apart not just because Johnson showed he could not command Parliament, but also due to UK request to remove level playing field provisions without which no agreement of any sort.
Major markets like the EU and US do not give preferential access to this for free (even if that would be economically beneficial) - you have to sign up to their conditions whether on labour, competition, or regulations.
Category error to think trade deals are straightforward because they are economically beneficial. Those benefits typically come at the expense of vested interests, a political cost that must see an equal or greater political or economic benefit
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The normalisation of the risks of a 'no deal' Brexit is one of the most amazing aspects of this entire episode - that a Government should start its election pitch on the basis of an act of econmic self-harm (whatever your views as to where it leads). 1/
But it really does now seem as if we are heading towards a 'no deal' in order that @BorisJohnson can see off the threat from @Nigel_Farage @brexitparty_uk - these polls are right. /2
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
@BorisJohnson @Nigel_Farage @brexitparty_uk Lots of pondering what the 'ultimate' aim of @BorisJohnson
govt is....would they *really* go for a 'no deal' when the planning looks so messy.... as revealed by @SamCoatesSky yesterday /3
Read 20 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Why was Tusk noting the need for "detail"...well...after Lancaster House, after Chequers and three years of obfuscation we are still at this level of emptiness.... #Brexit
This sounds like 'bin the backstop'...but then what, if the EU says 'no'...which Boris must surely expect. A General Election?
A 'no deal'? Then what? Details.../2
No they won't - not by Oct 31. Sorry to be a doomster....anyone got several thousand customs clearing agents? Coz if not, there wont be enough by Oct 31. Impossible. 'Can-do' spirit won't fix that...sky won't fall, but it'll be a mess, I'm told. /3
Read 3 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
1/ How might the Brexit Party hit the Conservative Party at a general election?

A short thread detailing figures in today's Telegraph bit.ly/2JHFILd

#EP2019 #EUelections2019
#brexit #brexitparty
2/ With Prime Minister May on her way out, the Brexit Party about to surge & the Conservative Party's future unclear we've run some numbers on how the Brexit Party could hit the Conservatives at a general election
3/ This combines constituency level data on 2017 general election with recent Westminster vote intention polls to estimate the flow of voters to the Brexit Party, giving us median and maximum estimates
Read 17 tweets
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
Read 125 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Right. It's Friday. A quick #Brexit sitrep, as I understand it, with chats from both sides.

Tldr: the tiller of SS Britannia seems stuck fast, and the No Deal rapids lie dead ahead....is there anything that will blow the ship to the safety of the shore? /1
There are lots of murmurs round Westminster that MPs now want to back the deal - this kind of stuff noted in @Jack_Blanchard_ playbook. /2
@Jack_Blanchard_ But dig a little deeper, and ask people in Commons/Lords if acceptance of a deal requires Cox/May to win changes to the backstop - a time-limit, an exit mechanism - they say 'oh yes, of course'... /3
Read 21 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. I'm not really interested in the respective technical arguments for a customs union because it is predominantly a moral issue. #Brexit thread
2. It can be argued that we need it for the preferential rules of origin regime to protect jobs in the car industry etc. But by prioritising global multinationals we are dispensing with one of the fundamentals of Brexit ie "Take back control".
3. Y'see, Tories have trade all wrong. Brexit isn't about dashing off into the blue yonder to sign a stack of FTAs we wouldn't get otherwise. At best we are going to have to run fast just to stand still. We can do some optimisation but nothing that really offsets Brexit damage.
Read 21 tweets

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