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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Why was Tusk noting the need for "detail"...well...after Lancaster House, after Chequers and three years of obfuscation we are still at this level of emptiness.... #Brexit
This sounds like 'bin the backstop'...but then what, if the EU says 'no'...which Boris must surely expect. A General Election?
A 'no deal'? Then what? Details.../2
No they won't - not by Oct 31. Sorry to be a doomster....anyone got several thousand customs clearing agents? Coz if not, there wont be enough by Oct 31. Impossible. 'Can-do' spirit won't fix that...sky won't fall, but it'll be a mess, I'm told. /3
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Some facts and figures on this - the value of UK lamb exports to the EU, the value of the 'new opportunities' in Japan, and the gap between the two 1/thread. #Brexit #NoDealBrexit
First UK lamb exports to the EU....and specifically Welsh lamb...this from BBC /2

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-…
And this from FarmingUK, which puts UK 2017 exports at £384m and rising consistently...from £302 million in 2015 and £327 million in 2016. /3
Read 9 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Some key points from @instituteforgov 'no deal' legislation report

- can avoid passing key bills before Oct 31, but not for long
- Direct Rule in NI unavoidable
- No deal would consume government bandwidth /1

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
@instituteforgov After 'no deal'

- we lose access to all the EU trade deals
- other countries won't want to negotiate with us (til they know where we are on tariffs, permanently)
- 16,000 civil servants will be working on the sh*tshow by autumn (not doing schools/health etc) /2
@instituteforgov And as times goes by the mess will

- "preoccupy" civil service for "years to come"
- risk the Union (how long, I wonder before Ulster farmers take direct action against zero-tariff imports flooding in from Ireland)...then what? And what price new Scottish indy ref? /3
Read 4 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Fabulous @MishalHusain intro to @DominicRaab @BBCr4today reminding world that he has only “four months” experience in Cabinet. Then asks if “no deal” is a “million to one or not” - she’s on icy form this morning. 1/
The @DominicRaab says EU “not prepared to move at all” - glossing over that fact that U.K. “ask” is a flat “bin the backstop”...and won’t confirm if @BorisJohnson will take up invite from French./2
Will you legislate for direct rule?

Questions “will be extent” to which it can be done without legislation.

@DominicRaab weaseling hard as he can to skate over Need for direct rule. Says there will be no hard border. /3
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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KT #Ode2Joy Parker🐬
@lunaperla
Today is possibly .@theresa_may's last day as PM, if .@BorisJohnson can command a majority (which is in some doubt...)

So it's a great opportunity to look back at some of the *highlights* of Mrs May's premiership in memes👇
13 JUL 2016: May was appointed as PM and named her Cabinet shortly thereafter, surprising many by giving 3 of the top #Brexit-related jobs to arch-brexiters Boris Johnson, David Davis & Liam Fox. Sheer folly, or genius in making them own what they'd sold? Sadly, the former😢
/1.
5 OCT 2016: With such a narrow result, the country could be forgiven for expecting May to propose a consensual solution, as Norway PM Erna Solberg had done in a similar situation. Most Remainers would've accepted #Norway.

May's #CitizensOfNowhere speech crushed all hope.
/2.
Read 71 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
No 10 source: process to elect new leader would begin after leaving EU [NB that would be May 22 if MV passed]
No 10 source: Timetable to elect new leader in hand of others - PM will stay during process.

This is about new leadership for phase 2.
Seems to me that PM is making it conditional on having to get through phase 1 that her general message it is
price she is prepared to pay and that the message of her team is that “this is national interest above personal interest”
Read 31 tweets
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Ben Kelly
@TheScepticIsle
Support for ‘no deal’ Brexit is the pinnacle of Leave's descent into zealotry. The end result of refusing to plan

Like Trump, 'no deal' advocates have flooded the debate with “alternative facts”
It won't end well

THREAD! PLEASE RETWEET!

#Brexit #WTOBrexit #NoDealBrexit #SOS
The increased support for a ‘no deal’ Brexit is the ultimate failure of the Leave movement. It’s the inevitable consequence of the refusal to grasp details, come to terms with complexity & coalesce around a plan. Compromise can be frustrating. So instead they will have a tantrum.
Some Brexiteers advocated sensible solutions. The EFTA/EEA solution gained a lot of traction in the years before the ref. Even Farage had promoted it & countless others. See Farage below from 2011 essentially making the ‘Liberal Leave’ case!
Read 55 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. Unfortunately, @NickBoles is still prattling on about a "Norway then Canada" #Brexit. He has no idea how the system works. The transfer to EEA is not a simple copy and paste job. There's the Efta accession for starters then EEA will require configuration. (Thread)...
2. EEA does not cover fisheries or agriculture and though this is a selling point of the EEA that does not mean we can simply not have formal agreements on these sectors. We would also need an EEA customs protocol which would take a while just to negotiate.
3. Engineering the EEA for our own ends would require substantial reworking of parts of it so we are looking at a staggered negotiation and implementation of it which very well could take the better part of five years - which business would then have to adapt to. and implement.
Read 10 tweets
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Learn German, Interestingly
@LGcommaI
#brexit, #language, #mathematics, #pseudoscience, #rhetoric, #style

Brand-new and remarkable: #today, in a speech before #industry-representatives, chancellor Angela #Merkel used an old-fashioned, and,I think, INAPPROPRIATE,mathematical term to describe the #Brexit discussions..
.. in the #UK.

On 20180925, 9:50 CET, (cf. bdi.eu/der-bdi/termin…), chancellor Merkel said the following: "Wesentlich hängt es natürlich auch davon ab, was Großbritannien denn wirklich möchte. Auch da ist ja die Diskussion nicht so ganz eineindeutig [sic],
und, das muss ich..
.. allerdings sagen: Man kann nicht zum Binnenmarkt gehören, wenn man in EINEM Teil nur zum Binnenmarkt gehören will, aber in drei ANDEREN Teilen nicht zum Binnenmarkt gehört, und da müssen wir verschiedene, äh, vernünftige Wege [ rest drowned out by applause ]."
..
Read 17 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. I am told I should welcome the efforts of @betterbrexit. I'm not impressed. It's too little, far too late and ill thought out. EEA might well be a large part of the solution but it is not a miracle solution and moving into it from the position of being an EU member is not easy
2. To maintain frictionless trade we would need a customs protocol to go with it along with a series of negotiated annexes which may take a number of years to complete. It's not as simple as just filling in an Efta application form.
3. EEA has often been described as an off the shelf solution (even by me) but it is only off the shelf insofar as it is an existing framework. It still needs to be beaten into shape and will have to take into account the concerns and red lines of Efta members.
Read 22 tweets

Trending hashtags

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