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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
, 6 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
i just took a student’s t test
turns out
i’m 100%
null diff
yeah i’ve got outliers that’s the skewness in me
bling bling, take a log, that’s the gaussian in me
you coulda had a Bayesian
noncommittal
override your prior knowledge
just a little
you’re sposed to test my theory, but you’re deflating my p’s
and that’s the sound of me not regressing back
why logits great til they gotta be causal
ok I’m done
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More from @gelliottmorris see all

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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
🚨NEW from me and @TheEconomist's data team: Our interactive for the 2020 Democratic primary! We have a fancy polling average, candidate support by demographic group, data on who candidates' core voters are also considering and more. <THREAD> (No paywall!) projects.economist.com/democratic-pri…
1. Here is a collection of screenshots from the interactive. Allow me to tell you about some of the features, how they work, where we get our data and how we did our modeling. 1/13
2. The first element on the page presents our average of high-quality national polls of the Democratic primary. We include phone polls from firms that survey with live interviewers and online polls from firms that use well-documented, trusted methods (ie no IVR/Mturk combos).
Read 15 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
I just undertook a mammoth effort for @TheEconomist's data team to determine what would have happened in the 2016 election had every eligible voter actually turned out. In this Medium post (and the tweets that follow) I explain how I did it. THREAD 1/5 medium.economist.com/would-donald-t…
2. See this thread for more about the piece.

We used a statistical method called multi-level regression and post-stratification (Mr P) to turn national-level US election polling into estimates of state-level voter behavior in the 2016 election.
3. Mr P enables us to break down the relationship between demographic variables (such race and education) and voting habits at the state level. You can imagine that we could figure out the election for any combination of turnout and partisan loyalty for any groups (like so).
Read 5 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
NEW from me: What if everyone had voted in 2016? We have quantified the left-leaning nature of non-voters and project that Hillary Clinton would be president today under such a scenario. But the findings run deeper than this headline. THREAD 1/14 economist.com/graphic-detail…
2. We first thought up this piece as a simple addition to our annual "World If" magazine supplement, but it soon ballooned into something larger. It seemed that nobody had suggested a satisfactory answer to the question of what would happen in US politics if everyone turned out.
3. We hypothesized that the US would drift more to the left under universal voting, but by how much? Though non-voters are more diverse & thus left-leaning than voters, there are plenty of working-class whites who don't turn out either. Our math says they make up ~50% of adults.
Read 15 tweets

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James Taranto
@jamestaranto
This clickbait Newsweek headline is pretty funny. newsweek.com/vegan-neighbor…
Naturally, I took the bait and clicked. It turns out the "Supreme Court" referenced in the headline is the Supreme Court of Western Australia. Note that's not Australia but WESTERN Australia--i.e., it's a state supreme court.
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Ankit Panda
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Modi makes announcement on space. Low earth orbit ASAT test!
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Lefty Paingood
@LPaingood
YES, IT'S TIME TO FORGET.....
Forget ALL of it.....

That they RAN GUNS, resulting in the death of Americans, then lied about it and hid evidence....
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🏴James Heathers🏴
@jamesheathers
Alright, let's have a roll-call of the big psychology studied that ate their own teeth for one reason or another.

SOCIAL PRIMING. Lots of failed repos.

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Peter Maass
@maassp
1) I'm not sure how to make people remember or care that 15 years ago the United States invaded Iraq, setting off a war that continues to this day, with several hundred thousand Iraqis dead, millions turned into refugees. I covered the invasion for the New York Times Magazine.
2) Though I'm a writer, I shot photos during the invasion as I drove a rented Hyundai SUV from Kuwait into Iraq via Safwan, then up the spine of the country to Nasiriya, Diwaniya, Hilla, Kut and finally Baghdad. Here's the Hyundai on March 19, 2003. It's clean--that will change
3) The photographer I worked with, Laurent vander Stockt, drove his own SUV. After several failed attempts to get into Iraq, one time turned back at gunpoint by U.S. soldiers, we finally got through, via what we guessed was a minefield (I followed Lauren tracks). Here's Laurent.
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