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Modi makes announcement on space. Low earth orbit ASAT test!
Holy shit. 300 km altitude LEO intercept; that’ll produce debris.
I wrote this last year in the context of a possible live Russian ASAT test; turns out India was as much of a concern. thedailybeast.com/putin-polishes… 
Granted, the Indian ASAT test’s reported 300 km altitude is considerably in lower-LEO than China’s 2007 test (800+ km). I don’t expect this will go over all too well overseas, but it’ll do great at home.
On China’s 2007 test and debris: “More than two-thousand distinct pieces of debris from that Chinese interception continue to orbit the Earth at high speeds, threatening other satellites. Hundreds of pieces will remain threatening for decades.” thedailybeast.com/putin-polishes…
How big a deal is Indian ASAT? This is less about shooting down satellites and more about proving high-altitude “hit-to-kill” proficiency, which is the core competency required to get good at a range of things, including ballistic missile defense. That matters.
IMO, the better comparison to the Indian test appears to be the 2008 US intercept in Operation Burnt Frost, when a satellite was shot down at 240 km altitude. thedailybeast.com/putin-polishes…
Anyway, China, the United States, and India have all conducted ASAT tests in the last 12 years. Russia has the PL19 (Nudol), which has yet to see testing against a live satellite target. That could change soon.
Also, one important detail to shore up the “this is about BMD” hypothesis: Modi emphasized that the ASAT test was completed in a “3 minute” operation. Wonder why underscoring that promptness was necessary? 🙃
One final thought on the interceptor used: India hasn’t disclosed an ASAT development program before, so this is probably a variant of existing technology. The best candidate seems to be the Prithvi Defence Vehicle (PDV), DRDO’s newer exo-atmospheric hit-to-kill interceptor.
Small correction: DRDO officials have spoken about ASAT capabilities, but not in terms of a specific system. Here’s an example: "India has all the building blocks for an anti-satellite capability" indiatoday.in/india/story/ag…
Why did this need to be a national announcement 2 weeks before an election? Not sure. Perhaps to give balm to anyone still concerned with the IAF missing the JeM camp at Balakot or to take attention away from capability shortcomings in general?
There it is again: “...extremely high speed with remarkable precision”
Note. From the Indian government's official FAQ on the ASAT test.
Indian MOD tells us more about the makeup of the ASAT interceptor used in this test.
Good work by @Marco_Langbroek on the target satellite here. The target satellite (Microsat-r) had a mass of 740 kg, so this was a comparatively small object—all the more useful to demonstrate hit-to-kill applications for BMD use.
Less mass also means less debris. USA-193, the satellite shot down by the United States during Operation Burnt Frost at a similar altitude, had more than twice the launch mass of India’s target Microsat-r.
First shot of the DRDO “Ballistic Missile Defense Interceptor” used in Wednesday’s ASAT test. Looks like a first/second stage derived from the Prithvi Defence Vehicle, with a new third stage.
Should probably add this to the thread: Wednesday’s ASAT test appears to be India’s highest-altitude hit-to-kill success ever. (That’s implicit in the BMD discussion above, but worth drawing out, IMO.)
On a purely aesthetic level, I’d say this is the best-looking missile to come out of DRDO ever. (Not a big fan of the Agni series look, personally.)
