Re: Iran/KSA – In a national security crisis lacking an imminent threat, important to slow down, gather facts, consult with allies and even adversaries, and develop options with considered thought as to consequence of any action and preparation for counter-response.
Any proposal for military action against Iran must be tied to clear objectives, and readiness for escalation across the region. We cannot presume it will be “one and done” as in Syria WMD strikes. It would likely escalate, and thus congressional support beforehand is important.
It’s also important in a crisis to review assumptions of current policy and whether they are proving correct. If assumptions are false, then policies meet unanticipated friction and lead to unintended consequence.
This seems to be the case with U.S. policy towards Iran, as I argued in more detail earlier this summer, including here👉
If true that this brazen attack on Saudi soil was launched from Iran, then Saudi Arabia has every right to act in self defense. It has capacity to hit fixed targets with precision. Saudi pilots flew in our initial strikes against ISIS and performed well. (Yemen is another story.)
Making the case publicly to justify a limited Saudi response – should they wish to act – may be the best of bad options. But any such action must be preceded and followed by proactive US-led engagement in the region and around the world to mitigate risks of spiral.
All the while, if this weekend's attack was launched from Iran, we should presume Tehran has priced in a Saudi or US response and prepared its counter, with another rung up the escalatory ladder. With everyone “locked and loaded” – it's a good time to slow down, and think.
