, 10 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
After two years of near non-stop discussion of trade with China, it is surprising to me that some basic facts about trade with China aren't better known.

The states that export the most autos to China for example.

The correct answer is South Carolina and Alabama (not swing states to my knowledge), the homes of BMW and Mercedes US operations.

S Carolina exports 2x as much to China as Michigan ... and that's most autos (+ perhaps some 787s)

We know that BMW and Mercedes export more cars (really SUVs) from the US to China than do Ford and especially GM

Ford and especially GM sell a lot of cars in China.

But that doesn't mean they make a lot of cars in the US to sell to China.

Their executives (and some of their engineers) care a lot about the Chinese markets. Their US workforce? Not so much ...
The Chinese auto market is deeply depressed right now, and that is hurting everyone in China (Ford in particular). But China's auto market (apart from the luxury segment) is a make in China to sell in China (and avoid China's tariff wall) market. It isn't a trade story.
& just as a trade war has losers (US soybean producers, US consumers), so would trade peace. With so much spare capacity in China, a true end to the trade and tariff war likely would tempt (per @KeithBradsher among others) GM and Ford to supply the US market from China.
@KeithBradsher That's what makes trade such a difficult issue --

The unionized auto workers in Detroit are not among those who stand to lose the most from a trade war with China, and they could lose from "peace"

While soy farmers and Wisconsin dairy farmers do stand to win from "peace"
@KeithBradsher Wisconsin's Department of Agriculture actually puts out detailed, up-to-date data on Wisconsin's agricultural trade with China ...

@KeithBradsher But Wisconsin is also a big exporter of medical equipment, and it has lost out from China's "localization" policy (want to sell to China, better produce in China) for medical devices

@KeithBradsher which brings me to a point @econjared has made -- it is hard to know who will win and lose from a trade deal with China when Trump hasn't made it clear precisely what kind of deal he is seeking from China.

all for now
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Brad Setser
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!