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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Government’s new 21 point flowchart for exports of meat and dairy to EU after a No Deal Brexit... currently would consist of driving produce through tunnel - now this requires UK EORI, EU EORI, EHC, GB Health mark, correct BIP, TRACES, tariff, checks/ payment, vets, inspection:
Problems here
- aren’t or certainly weren’t enough vets... vast majority of vets working in this capacity are non British nationals/ EU nationals.
- nor council inspectors
- nor customs agents
- & concerns foreign refrigerated lorries relied on for exports won’t risk delays
... that assumes too EU approves UK “listed status” for animal/product movements.

didn’t ahead of March 29. And then did on April 10 - just 2 days ahead of April 12 deadline.

This is currently withdrawn, you’d expect it to be reapplied. Hasn’t yet been.
gov.uk/government/new…
new vote in EU committee called ScoPAFF required for listed status - in theory should be formality, but not scheduled yet.

However industry figure told me April decision was underpinned by regulatory commitments.
Now fear Govt’s reg divergence plans might complicate decision.
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More from @faisalislam see all

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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
This is a significant critique from someone involved in the negotiations up until new PM...
Also - the idea of customs checks away from the border wasn’t even on the long list of facilitations/conclusions considered by the government’s official Alternative arrangements working groups over summer, or at least wasn’t in this document: politico.eu/wp-content/upl…
Reactions to apparent leak of UK “non-paper” from those trading across border mostly unprintable... but “costly, invasive unworkable” is one, others point out lorry from Scotland faces Irish Sea checks on food/animal standards, and then NI customs post and then an ROI post too..
Read 7 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Chancellor to #CPC19: No Deal prep my top priority ... not without significant challenges... our step change in prep has made a deal more likely, and no deal more manageable
Chancellor says Bank of England has already revised down economic impact of No Deal because of preps... (now a hit of 5.5% rather than 8%)
Failing to deliver Brexit “will tear at the fabric of British democracy” ... “one vote, one mandate, one nation” - number one concern of business in not EU withdrawal but Labour, says Chancellor:
Read 8 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Chancellor tells Today he’ll reveal more about policy response to a possible No Deal in speech (though won’t reveal what the plans are either to get a deal or to get no deal). Operation Kingfisher has been prepared. But he also mentions Bank of England’s own independent response
The obvious thing here would be some sort of contingent emergency Budget after October 19th but before October 31st. Could perhaps lean into scope for tax cuts in areas currently aligned under EU rules, such as VAT.

Getting such a Budget through Commons would be another matter.
First thing to say - retail lobby did ask for action on VAT (and business rates) at a meeting with Gove a fortnight ago to help mitigate a “chaotic no deal”... though they stressed getting a deal was top priority...
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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Sam Hooper
@SamHooper
Thread: There’s an insidious argument that it is automatically “un-conservative” to oppose anything that has been baked into the British political landscape for more than a couple of decades. Hence Brexit is supposedly a sign of the Tories being irresponsibly revolutionary. /1
Now, I’m the last one to disagree with the notion that this government has been (and continues to be) cavalier and irresponsible in flirting with a disruptive No Deal Brexit, which was certainly not the Brexit which I and many others campaigned and voted for. /2
But the lazy idea being bandied around by journalists, commentators and others (@sullydish has a slightly more measured take) is that Brexit is inherently un-conservative. Which sounds pleasing until you actually stop and properly think about it. /3
Read 34 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) the fate of the country on #Brexit relies on one man doing the right thing

What this informed article tells us is that the sure fire way of stopping no deal is a specific vote of no confidence followed by an alternative government within 14 days

prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/how-c…
2) not to be overdramatic but all other routes are risky and could be blocked. But constitutionally the primary defence against a rogue government remains in place, vote no confidence, bring Johnson down, form a new government around an alternative PM and pass legislation
3) So there is only one actual blocker - Corbyn. Either insufficient MPs believe he can command the confidence of the house or insufficient (Tory mostly but not exclusively) would support him.

But if he is forced out, insufficient left Labour MPs would support anyone else
Read 9 tweets
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Mark Scott
@markscott82
Now that a ‘No Deal’ #Brexit is looking like the most likely outcome, I would (again) bang the drum for how this is really bad news for anyone who moves data btwn the UK & EU, and vice versa.

Here’s why:
Right now, as an EU country, the UK is part of the region’s privacy regime, meaning that anyone (tech company, bank, retailer) can move data freely across the EU-28. It’s the lifeblood of the economy, particularly for professional services — something that the UK does really well
But in a no-deal scenario, that ready access is turned off overnight. No ifs, ands or buts. The UK says it’ll keep data moving from its side to the EU (yay!). But the EU says you won’t be able to move data from EU-27 to UK, unless you have special mechanisms in place
Read 22 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU leaders pretty convinced they will soon by faced with Boris Johnson as new UK PM and opinion is split /1
Talk to different EU diplomats and politicians from different EU countries and you’ll get a number of different opinions as to how #Brexit will play out in the autumn /2
Some see BJ as one of the key architects of the Leave vote and therefore one of the few UK politicians able to sell a compromise deal with the EU to Parliament /3
Read 9 tweets
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
Read 125 tweets
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Stuart Budd #PeoplesVote 🇬🇧🇪🇺❄️
@StuartBudd1
1/
 . @neil_parish MP for Tiverton & Honiton

When you voted to trigger A50 you knew that the
Govt ref. leaflet sent to every household did not mention the
Good Friday Agreement & how leaving the EU will impact it.

Why did you vote to trigger A50?
Ken Clarke MP didn't.

#FBPE
2/
 @neil_parish MP for Tiverton & Honiton

When you voted to trigger A50
you knew that regulatory alignment would be required for
Northern Ireland, as highlighted by the phase 1 report from 2017,
requiring both the SM & CU.
Does it not make sense to stay in the CU & SM?

#FBPE
3/
 @neil_parish MP for Tiverton & Honiton

When you voted to trigger A50
you knew that it would have customs implications for everything from cars to fresh food.

If there is no deal how long will supermarkets have fresh produce on their shelves?

independent.co.uk/news/business/…

#FBPE
Read 27 tweets

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