Thread by @tcambanis

1/THREAD ON IRAN & US: We’re now in a security crisis entirely the result of unforced errors by the United States. Trump refused to have a strategy, and chose to destabilize the region with maximum confrontation.

2/Along the way, the Trump administration has squandered huge reservoirs of credibility.

3/A manageable relationship with Iran under the JCPOA is now a potential war because of maximum pressure policy (which has accomplished none of its stated aims).

4/Cornered and under pressure economically, politically and militarily, Iran has understandable motives to strike out to defend its interests and establish deterrence.

5/Because US turned up the volume to 11 for no reason two years ago, it no longer has reasonable, limited options to respond to Iranian bad actions.

6/In a sane world with a sane US administration, we could counsel a reasonable response to Iran’s strike on Saudi oil installations.

7/A sane America would quietly marshal world opinion, sharing convincing intelligence about Iran’s role, build a coalition, and quietly respond in ways short of starting a war.

8/Saudi is also acting irresponsibility. No one, including the US, owes MbS anything. Protecting global energy supplies does not equal underwriting spoiler regime in Saudi.

9/Main terrifying point of this crisis with Iran and Saudi, however, is that we simply cannot count on the United States to behave with even a modicum of responsibility or restraint.

10/Today’s destabilizing world order begins in Washington, where leaders can’t be trusted to be acting in good faith. It’s foolish to pin hopes on Trump’s supposed desire to avoid war while escalating at every opportunity.

11/The current period parallels 2001-3, when Bush administration wantonly lied in order to force a radical war, whose consequences they couldn’t predict.

12/W & Co thought chaos would redound to America’s benefit. They were wrong. Trump & Co seem to be following same blueprint. But there is no such things as "constructive chaos.”

13/Best likely outcome is still bad: Trump avoids starting a war for domestic political concerns and Iranian clashes with regional rivals simmer at current levels.

14/14 Roiling instability is the new normal. That won’t change unless and until US and other world and regional powers abandon reflexive militarization and commit to diplomacy & political compromise instead.
/END THREAD