Thread by @rafsanchez

Blue & White got 23k more votes in Sept than in April. Likud got 30k fewer even though it absorbed Kulanu. Bibi was right: a lot of Likud voters didn't show up this time (or went to Lieberman).

B&W:
April - 1,125,881
Sept - 1,148,700

Likud:
April - 1,140,370
Sept - 1,111,535

Lieberman almost doubled his vote from last time.

April - 173,004
Sept - 309,688

Interestingly, Shas' turnout was up 28%. Looks like their effort to mobilise their voters against secular hegemony worked (you can, conveniently, read about that effort here: telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/1…)

April - 258,275
Sept - 329,834

United Torah Judaism's vote stayed almost exactly level. When you believe it's G-d's will to vote, you show up rain or shine, boring election or exciting one.

April - 249,049
Sept - 268,688

The overall secular liberal vote (Blue & White, Labour, Meretz) stayed pretty much the same.

April: 1,473,224
Sept: 1,553,490

It's not that there was a secular surge, it's that Right-wingers didn't show up or defected to Lieberman.

More people voted for far-Right parties (Bennett + Shaked, Jewish Home, Otzmah) this time. But fewer of those votes counted because Otzmah failed to make threshold.

April: 298,066
Sept (total): 343,605
Sept (minus wasted Otzmah votes ): 260,339

Not an expert in these calculations but: it looks like about 4.3 million people voted for parties that crossed the threshold or roughly 36,000 votes per seat.

Otzmah wasted 83,266 votes, or 2 seats for the Right. Wouldn't have swung it but would've strengthened Bibi's hand.

Votes for the Joint List (or its component parts) was up 40%. That's partly about higher Arab turnout but also more Jews voting for Joint List.

April: 337,108
Sept: 470,611

I think big picture is that Bibi has only himself to blame. He couldn't hold on to his voters or Kulanu's, who didn't show up or went to Lieberman.

Wasted Otzmah votes and high Arab turnout hurt him also. But biggest problem was his own vote fall.