Thread by @pmdfoster

The UK thinks it @LeoVaradkar will have to cave in to demands to have a trade border in Northern Ireland for fear of the economic and political fallout from a no deal.

Is that right? After trip to Dublin I don't think so. Here's why 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

@LeoVaradkar First, the UK strategy. It is to argue - as @SteveBarclay did last week - that Ireland is better to accept trade border by end of 2020 (with 14 month grace period) than an abrupt border via a 'no deal'. /2

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1174624712288284672

Am told @sajidjavid was making same arguments in Dublin last week

At the same time, per @PatLeahyIT UK politicians and officials are going round EU saying Ireland will have to compromise. The old divide and rule. /3

irishtimes.com/news/ireland/i…

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT So, tactically speaking, can this work?

Will the economic consequences of a 'no deal' for Ireland, and the political fallout for @LeoVaradkar from the resulting mess, mean that for all the tough talk in Dublin the Irish will fold, perhaps under EU pressure?

Mmmm... /4

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar Let's start with economy...the numbers indeed look ugly from a no deal

- six studies show loss of 5-7% GDP from basecase
- households paying 100 euros month more for goods/bills
- huge hit to cheese/beef (50% exports to UK)
- 34,000 fewer jobs by 2020

Ouch ouch ouch! /5

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar Surely - as @BorisJohnson hinted in his speech in Dublin earlier this month - Ireland would be crazy to risk all this over the backstop. I paraphrase: "Why not take the transition period to sort out this border which we all know we gonna have?"

Well...I went to ask around. /6

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson What about Danny McCoy, the CEO of @ibec_irl the Irish equivalent of the CBI.

Nope, he's not compromising, since re-establishing a border in Ireland, destabilising society and trade, is worse than the no deal. /7

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson @ibec_irl FWIW @iantal2000 of @ChambersIreland told me same.

It's not unlike German car makers. They want a deal, but not at the cost of the functioning of the single market. That would be self-defeating. The protection of the all-ireland economy feels the same. /8

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson @ibec_irl @iantal2000 @ChambersIreland But what about those beef farmers?

Half their output goes to UK. They've already taken 150-euro hit per head on the exchange rate? The industry has just been rocked by massive protests over pricing....they must be begging @LeoVaradkar to cave in no?

Um. No. Seems not. /9

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson @ibec_irl @iantal2000 @ChambersIreland The Irish Farmers Association @IFAmedia @joehealyfarmer don't buy or want "alternative arrangements" - the way want a deal, but if that fails, then they want a billion euros in compensation. But they don't want @LeoVaradkar to cave. /10

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson @ibec_irl @iantal2000 @ChambersIreland @IFAmedia @joehealyfarmer All of which makes that UK tactical gambit to 'force' the Irish to cave in under threat of 'no deal' seem somewhat shakey....but still, not withstanding the passage of the Benn Act, top people like Barclay & Javid seem to cling to the idea.

But what about the politics? /11

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson @ibec_irl @iantal2000 @ChambersIreland @IFAmedia @joehealyfarmer Could @LeoVaradkar really survive the political fallout from a 'no deal'?

Sure, there's brave talk now from the 'Green Jersey brigade' but when it came to it, surely Varadkar (who runs a minority govt) would be made mincemeat by the opposition?

So went to talk to them too./12

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson @ibec_irl @iantal2000 @ChambersIreland @IFAmedia @joehealyfarmer This seems hard for UK's oppositional political bubble to understand given tribal Labour-Tory dynamics, but on the question of the backstop Ireland's two main parties @fiannafailparty @FineGael are amazingly united. /13

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson @ibec_irl @iantal2000 @ChambersIreland @IFAmedia @joehealyfarmer @fiannafailparty @FineGael Here's what @lichamber the FF #brexit spox said to me....

...the point is that Brexit and not allowing it to repartition Ireland is an existential issue, and it trumps party politics. /14

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson @ibec_irl @iantal2000 @ChambersIreland @IFAmedia @joehealyfarmer @fiannafailparty @FineGael @lichamber It is true that there have been one or two dissenting voices - as when an FF TD Timmy Dooley accused Mr Varadkar of failing in diplomacy...but boy did he get slapped down. Not just by FF leader Michael Martin, but across the board. All main parties. /15

irishtimes.com/news/ireland/i…

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson @ibec_irl @iantal2000 @ChambersIreland @IFAmedia @joehealyfarmer @fiannafailparty @FineGael @lichamber There was also Lucinda Creighton, ex Europe Minister and friend of @LeoVaradkar who suggested a time-limit compromise was way forward - but the machine went into over drive to crush that idea too. /16
irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/i…

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson @ibec_irl @iantal2000 @ChambersIreland @IFAmedia @joehealyfarmer @fiannafailparty @FineGael @lichamber So yes, there are one or two dissenting voices but it is really very hard to make them add up to a quorum that will destabilise @LeoVaradkar and make him cave in to British pressure.

As Eoin O'Mally @AnMailleach told me, 'no deal' doesn't end Varakdar's career. /17

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson @ibec_irl @iantal2000 @ChambersIreland @IFAmedia @joehealyfarmer @fiannafailparty @FineGael @lichamber @AnMailleach There is no more divisive issue than #Brexit - and my views on risk to Irish border region posed by UK's proposals are well known - but I've tried to approach this purely from a 'tactical' point of view.

Can UK strategy work? Have to say, looks doubtful. /18

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson @ibec_irl @iantal2000 @ChambersIreland @IFAmedia @joehealyfarmer @fiannafailparty @FineGael @lichamber @AnMailleach Yes, the hit to the economy is big - though 0.7 per cent of 'lost' GDP in an economy currently growing a 5 per cent a year, puts it in some perspective.

And if UK is so happy to put politics over economy in a 'no deal', then why wouldn't Ireland? /19

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson @ibec_irl @iantal2000 @ChambersIreland @IFAmedia @joehealyfarmer @fiannafailparty @FineGael @lichamber @AnMailleach Because as @Noelle_OC from @emireland points out, the UK's approach to "little Leo" as some Brexiteers sneer at him is touching old historical reflexes and which clash with a belief that Ireland can forge a future in Europe and beyond. /20

@sajidjavid @PatLeahyIT @LeoVaradkar @BorisJohnson @ibec_irl @iantal2000 @ChambersIreland @IFAmedia @joehealyfarmer @fiannafailparty @FineGael @lichamber @AnMailleach @Noelle_OC @emireland So don't get me wrong.

I'm not naive that #Brexit, at bottom, is a game of hard-interest politics. Everyone is playing hardball.

My fear is that with Ireland (as with EU and Germany) it's the UK that's being naive.

ENDS