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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Here's me on the public opinion dimensions of impeachment. 53eig.ht/2mShUtz
Basically:

* Impeachment on Russia was *quite* unpopular, and the Democrats' attempts to explain that away are mostly unpersuasive.

* Several reasons to think Ukraine could be different, but Ds should think about why Russia impeachment was unpopular in proceeding on Ukraine.
IMO these are the main lessons from Russia for Dems to consider:

1. Be narrow and specific; focus on Ukraine, not other stuff.
2. Don’t overpromise on details unless you can deliver.
3. Emphasize the threats to election integrity.
4. Stay unified.
5. Work quickly & urgently.
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More from @NateSilver538 see all

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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Don't get what Biden's doing here. Maybe there's an very thin limb where you can support an impeachment inquiry but not necessarily removal from office. But you probably shouldn't be on that limb when the basis of impeachment is POTUS ginning up a scandal about you & your son!
And Harris! "Let's wait for the evidence" is at least a little more on-brand for an ex-prosecutor. But the Dems' position should probably be that there's *already* enough evidence for impeachment/removal based on Trump's remarks & the WH call transcript.
Warren's team must be doing cartwheels. Nothing about Harris's strategy has made sense since her good 1st debate. Biden's strategy over Ukraine hasn't been good. Bernie IMO has had the wrong strategy from the start (i.e. doubling down on his ~15% base vs expanding his coalition).
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Pelosi's instincts on impeachment are looking very solid so far.
Who knows. Could it be going even better for Dems if Pelosi had called for impeachment over Russia a few months ago and *then* the Ukraine stuff landed? Maybe. I tend to think that would have dulled the impact of Ukraine. But who knows. It's hard to prove anything.
What we do know is that the first 2 weeks have gone well for Dems on almost every front: D party unity is high, public opinion has swing in their favor, Trump's defenses are feeble and (most importantly) the fact pattern has been very unfavorable for the White House.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
FWIW, here's what we estimate NBA replacement level to be based on the performance of players on two-way contacts. About -2.75 points per 100 possessions, of which -1.85 comes on offense and -0.90 on defense, although the offense/defense split varies by position.
We don't buy that there should be different replacement levels across different positions. Instead, stats should be designed such that the league average at each position is roughly equal. Many advanced stats are biased toward big men, especially traditional post-up bigs.
We do find that PGs are generally more valuable than shooting guards, for the same reason that shortstops are generally more valuable than second basemen. The best PGs can generally do all the things that SGs can do, plus run the offense and generate additional value that way.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Adam A. Fernandez
@AdamaEsq
A short thread on #impeachment.

I have pre-existing conditions—I fear my life & that of my friends being taken away.
I have close friends with DACA—I fear their right to be here being taken away.
I'm a Latino parent—I fear my child will be discriminated against worse than I was
I'm the survivor of an in-person death threat against me & my family, from a MAGA extremist who hated me just for who I am—I fear him or another carrying out those threats.

I'm an attorney—I fear the erosion of the rule of law.
I'm a patriot—I fear Russian interference in the 2020 election.

I'm a voting rights advocate—I fear a system is currently being created that will lead to permanent minority rule, & that that minority will use political power to permanently restricts the rights of the majority.
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Peter Daou
@peterdaou
THREAD: DEBUNKING ANTI-IMPEACHMENT ARGUMENTS

I wrote a piece taking apart the specious arguments against #impeachment

You know, things like "the Senate won't convict..." "It's too divisive..." "Trump is goading Dems..." and so on.

peterdaou.com/no-good-argume…
SPIN: The Senate won’t convict so there’s no point impeaching in the House.

FACT: It doesn't matter what the Senate does. The Constitution demands impeachment.
SPIN: Democrats need to gather more evidence to make an airtight case for impeachment.

FACT: We don't need more evidence.
Read 12 tweets
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Lola Netty
@TXTrumpette89
There is clear evidence now that shows Hillary Clinton's family & charity profited from Moscow & simultaneously facilitated official gvmt actions benefiting #Russia that have raised security concerns #ticktock #lockherup #panicinDC #GITMO #WWG1WGA thehill.com/opinion/white-…GBkEEfwr
Define 'Projection'.
How do you fix something that is known to be broken (corrupt)?
Do you first need to remove those responsible? #draintheswamp
Think FBI/DOJ 'exit' list.
How do you 'restore' the image (public faith) of our most prestigious ‘law enforcement’ institutions?
Hold people accountable?
Equal justice under the law?
The battle begins (as seen today) w/ public opinion.
The FIGHT to win PUBLIC FAVORABILITY.
The FIGHT to control the NARRATIVE.
How do Democrats control the NARRATIVE?
Read 18 tweets
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LTG Jerry Boykin
@GenBoykin
WATCH: @TeamCavuto , @FoxNews 4pm EST. I join with the latest on #Russia, #Ukraine, and the mounting tension over their escalating conflict.

#RussiaUkraine #russia #maritime #foxnews

video.foxnews.com/v/597185664800…
Russia seized the Ukraine boat in #internationalwaters, not in the #SeaOfAsov or the #StraightOfKerch. This is a violation of international #maritimelaw. This is also an #actofwar and a very serious situation.

#RussiaUkraine #russia #ukraine #maritime
The U.S. government & @realDonaldTrump must take a very firm position on this and trade action immediately. Russia will push this situation to the limit and then back away with the gains they h ave achieved. There must be a heavy penalty.
#RussiaUkraine #russia #ukraine #maritime
Read 3 tweets
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❌🇺🇸Gigi Sims🇺🇸💋
@1GigiSims
Democrats want to subvert a lawful election by the people and the media helps spread the #DNC lies. thehill.com/homenews/house…
One of the top #DNC operatives casting smears for ratings is @maddow She knowingly and dishonestly claims that republican sentiment that #Democrats want to remove @potus from office is preposterous. newyorker.com/magazine/2018/…
On cue with every move President Trump makes, the #Democrats and #DNC media are ready and waiting to spin and manufacture hysteria in order to fill the airwaves and internet with any fiction that will help their socialist leaders regain power. .@POTUS washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns…
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