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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Much as I love Politics Live, I'm afraid this doesn't really wash. There is nothing "unpredictable" about Brendan. He's been making the same small set of incendiary, polarising arguments on Spiked.com for years now. Precisely like those he made on live TV today.
You can argue that his perspective deserves representation, but you can't really claim to be surprised by how he expresses himself. This is a guy who writes the same aggressively populist essay three times a week, on the site he edits where all the other content is similar.
I don't think it would be difficult to compile a list of more objectionable things Brendan has said in his regular missives, just from the past year. It may be worth considering finding more thoughtful and reflective people to represent this political perspective in TV debates.
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
If you imagined a scenario where the Lib Dems end up supplanting Labour among Remain voters, this is the kind of polling you would expect as a starting point to an election focussed entirely on Brexit. A lot could change in campaign of course, but v. worrying for Lab
Remain voters don't think they are pro-Remain and now increasingly convinced they have an alternative who are. Meanwhile basically zero Leave voters think Lab are in favour of Leave either, so Lab have to hope such voters have other reasons to back them.
It *might* work, of course - arguably something like this worked in 2017. But if it doesn't work, we will all look back at polling like this and say "the warning signs were there".
Read 3 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Off to teach the first week of my #poli30241 elections and voters course shortly. This week we are talking about the role of class in British politics. An enduring conflict - but how has the political role of class changed in recent years?
Here's one of the graph's I'll be putting up - class and vote choice in Britain in 1964 (left) and England and Wales in 2015 (right). Spot the difference(s)!
Here's a second just for fun. The Alford Index captures the differences in levels of middle class and working class support for parties. See if you can spot the trend here....
Read 3 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Prediction: The Polish elections next month will get a huge wave of coverage from sections of the media/commentariat who have had v little to say about Austrian or Greek elections and will say little about Portugal next week. Partisan bias in action!
Its v well established that partisans ignore or explain away information which conflicts with the worldview they are attached to, while focusing on and talking about information which validates it.
Hence, partisans of "UnstoppableRiseOfPopulism" party - and there are many in both media & politics - will focus on Poland which is likely to provide a clean piece of evidence in favour of their beliefs, while ignoring clump of recent elections which are messier/at odds with them
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