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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Off to teach the first week of my #poli30241 elections and voters course shortly. This week we are talking about the role of class in British politics. An enduring conflict - but how has the political role of class changed in recent years?
Here's one of the graph's I'll be putting up - class and vote choice in Britain in 1964 (left) and England and Wales in 2015 (right). Spot the difference(s)!
Here's a second just for fun. The Alford Index captures the differences in levels of middle class and working class support for parties. See if you can spot the trend here....
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
These predictions are v sensitive to assumptons in our current fragmented politics. Change the assumptions, the prediction will change sharply too.
The implicit assumption here seems to be "No Deal leads to Cons winning big chunk of BXP vote *and nothing else changes*"

That seems unlikely to me. In fact, it seems unlikely to me that any move which secures 3/4 of BXP vote for Cons won't cost them votes elsewhere.
If we ran the scenario "No Deal alienates Con Remainers and a chunk of voters who still vote on economic competence grounds, while winning fewer BXP voters than expected from Lab" then we would end up with a v different graph. V hard to know ahead of time which scenario we get.
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
This by @stephenkb is exactly right and illustrates why the Labour partisans attacking the Lib Dems for “blocking” a Corbyn led unity govt are in fact doing the same thing as Swinson et al - partisan signalling
newstatesman.com/politics/elect…
Labour politicians and partisan, assuming they can do basic arithmetic, know just as well as everyone else that without the votes of former Con and Lab independent MPs there is no majority for a govt of national unity. And they know such inds will never back Corbyn.
So why are they trying to spin the yarn that only selfish LDs stand in the way of a Corbyn govt averting no deal, which they must know is false? For the same reason that LDs themselves insist Corbyn is unacceptable: they see an electoral interest in doing so
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
If you imagined a scenario where the Lib Dems end up supplanting Labour among Remain voters, this is the kind of polling you would expect as a starting point to an election focussed entirely on Brexit. A lot could change in campaign of course, but v. worrying for Lab
Remain voters don't think they are pro-Remain and now increasingly convinced they have an alternative who are. Meanwhile basically zero Leave voters think Lab are in favour of Leave either, so Lab have to hope such voters have other reasons to back them.
It *might* work, of course - arguably something like this worked in 2017. But if it doesn't work, we will all look back at polling like this and say "the warning signs were there".
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