The Arctic will be ice free by 2026 with catastrophic consequences for all life on Earth.
1. sea ice death spiral is irreversible
2. fastest warming place on Earth
3. will cause sudden temp rise to 2C
4. could even occur by 2022
No, this couldn't be true.
Could it?
[THREAD]
1. sea ice death spiral is irreversible
2. fastest warming place on Earth
3. will cause sudden temp rise to 2C
4. could even occur by 2022
No, this couldn't be true.
Could it?
[THREAD]
1. Irreversible death spiral:
Arctic permafrost is set to trigger an unstoppable cycle of warming. ⚠️
See threads: 👇
Arctic permafrost is set to trigger an unstoppable cycle of warming. ⚠️
See threads: 👇
2. 'The Arctic is the fastest-warming place on Earth, with the average temperature increasing by about 3.5C since the beginning of the 20th century...' ⚠️ 🌡️
cbc.ca/news/technolog…
'The Arctic is warming at least twice as fast as the global average.' 🔥
nationalgeographic.com/environment/20…
cbc.ca/news/technolog…
'The Arctic is warming at least twice as fast as the global average.' 🔥
nationalgeographic.com/environment/20…
2. continued...
⚠️ 'The Arctic is heading toward irreversible melting and ecosystem destruction, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.'
🔺'Researchers found that the Arctic has lost nearly 95% of its oldest ice.'
grist.org/article/4-ways…
⚠️ 'The Arctic is heading toward irreversible melting and ecosystem destruction, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.'
🔺'Researchers found that the Arctic has lost nearly 95% of its oldest ice.'
grist.org/article/4-ways…
3. Sudden warming:
“Losing the reflective power of Arctic sea ice will lead to warming equivalent to one trillion tons of CO2 and advance the 2ºC threshold by 25 years."
scripps.ucsd.edu/news/research-…
“Losing the reflective power of Arctic sea ice will lead to warming equivalent to one trillion tons of CO2 and advance the 2ºC threshold by 25 years."
scripps.ucsd.edu/news/research-…
3. Contd:
'We calculated it could give you 0.6°C warming of the planet in five years. That’s a big boost because methane is such a powerful greenhouse gas.' ⚠️
counterpunch.org/2016/06/17/epi…
'We calculated it could give you 0.6°C warming of the planet in five years. That’s a big boost because methane is such a powerful greenhouse gas.' ⚠️
counterpunch.org/2016/06/17/epi…
4. Faster than expected:
🌡️'The thick sea ice in the Arctic Ocean was not expected to melt until the end of the century. Now it looks like summer ice could be gone in a decade or two' (between 2022 and 2032).
From 2012:
newscientist.com/article/mg2162…
🌡️'The thick sea ice in the Arctic Ocean was not expected to melt until the end of the century. Now it looks like summer ice could be gone in a decade or two' (between 2022 and 2032).
From 2012:
newscientist.com/article/mg2162…
4. My guess is summer ice gone between 2021 and 2026, based on
1. everything going faster than expected (recent reports suggest the 2030s) and
2. @PaulHBeckwith's calculations plus comments by James Anderson & Peter Wadhams:
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_se…
2022:
1. everything going faster than expected (recent reports suggest the 2030s) and
2. @PaulHBeckwith's calculations plus comments by James Anderson & Peter Wadhams:
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_se…
2022:
Arctic heatwaves with temperatures more than 20C above normal:
2016:
'an unheard-of 20C higher than normal for the time of year'
theguardian.com/environment/20…
2019:
“unprecedented” heatwave as parts of the Arctic endure one of their hottest summers on record'
independent.co.uk/environment/ar…
2016:
'an unheard-of 20C higher than normal for the time of year'
theguardian.com/environment/20…
2019:
“unprecedented” heatwave as parts of the Arctic endure one of their hottest summers on record'
independent.co.uk/environment/ar…
Arctic sea ice is melting more rapidly than models can explain.
⚠️
technologyreview.com/s/609620/globa…
⚠️
technologyreview.com/s/609620/globa…
Researchers Warn Arctic Has Entered 'Unprecedented State' That Threatens Global Climate Stability:
"Never have so many Arctic indicators been brought together in a single paper." And the findings spell trouble for the entire planet.
commondreams.org/news/2019/04/0…
"Never have so many Arctic indicators been brought together in a single paper." And the findings spell trouble for the entire planet.
commondreams.org/news/2019/04/0…
Mainstream media is beginning to get close to the reality of the Arctic Emergency.
Most likely the summer ice will be gone before 2029.
But it is hard to predict.
All ice gone by the 2030s or just the summer ice?
Ice free for 1 or 2 months? Or 6 months?euronews.com/2019/03/05/arc…
Most likely the summer ice will be gone before 2029.
But it is hard to predict.
All ice gone by the 2030s or just the summer ice?
Ice free for 1 or 2 months? Or 6 months?euronews.com/2019/03/05/arc…
'There is great uncertainty about the timing of when the Arctic could become seasonally ice-free, with some research suggesting that recent trends could lead to an ice-free Arctic as early as the 2020s and others suggesting 2030...'
August 2019 - Vast swaths of the Arctic on fire:
'this summer isn’t a once-in-a-lifetime fluke; rather, it’s indicative of rapid changes that could alter the fabric of Arctic ecosystems, unleashing even more billions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere.'grist.org/article/the-ar…
'this summer isn’t a once-in-a-lifetime fluke; rather, it’s indicative of rapid changes that could alter the fabric of Arctic ecosystems, unleashing even more billions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere.'grist.org/article/the-ar…
A 2010 analysis 'led by the UK's Met Office in Review of Geophysics recognised the plausibility of catastrophic carbon releases from Arctic permafrost thawing of between 50-100 Gt this century, with a 40 Gt carbon release from the Siberian Yedoma region'.theguardian.com/environment/ea…
"There is no evidence of any recovery of the sea ice,' said Mark Serreze, director of the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center. "We are heading toward a seasonally ice-free Arctic ocean."
23rd Sept 2019
abcnews.go.com/Technology/wir…
23rd Sept 2019
abcnews.go.com/Technology/wir…
'The Arctic is unique, and the warming there is very severe.'
This alarming animated map hammers home the point. Just look at the dark red temperature change in the Northern most regions of the Earth over the last few years.
This alarming animated map hammers home the point. Just look at the dark red temperature change in the Northern most regions of the Earth over the last few years.
'researchers documented an Arctic that is warming 2.8 times faster than the rest of the Northern Hemisphere in the cold season, and 1.7 times faster in the warmer months.'
Average winter air temperature rise of 3.1°C since 1971. ⚠️🌡️
insideclimatenews.org/news/08042019/…
Average winter air temperature rise of 3.1°C since 1971. ⚠️🌡️
insideclimatenews.org/news/08042019/…
⚠️ In July 2019, the temperature was as much as 6C higher than average in some parts of Yakutia (also known as the Sakha Republic, Russia’s largest region, approximately 40% of which lies inside the Arctic Circle).
ft.com/content/d855d5…
ft.com/content/d855d5…
Arctic death spiral thread:
Permafrost thread:
'The methane pulse will bring forward by 15–35 years the average date at which the global mean temperature rise exceeds 2°C above pre-industrial levels — to 2035 for the business-as-usual scenario and to 2040 for the low-emissions case'
nature.com/articles/49940…
nature.com/articles/49940…
