Profile picture
Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
So no EU deal with this proposal. UK Govt driving full on towards confrontation with Parliament re Benn Act
I understand this was supposed to be in @BorisJohnson speech Weds at Conf or to Commons on Thurs
I'll add one small health warning: this might not be the final proposal. Mood music at Conf is that @BorisJohnson will offer something that would have a chance of flying with the EU. This very clearly won't
One senior UK source to me: "This is more detail from the non-papers. But I think they are mainly a bit of time-wasting to get us past the Tory conference..."
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Mujtaba Rahman
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Mij_Europe see all

Profile picture
Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
So strong working assumption of most (including me) is that A50 extension & elections are now almost inevitable. But what if we're all wrong? As one senior EU official says to me: "Whoever sends the letter, we need to know why we do this. That's the REAL question." However 1/4
There is no way for the European Council to mandate an election (or a referendum). And the way an election comes about - or indeed, if one does even come about - is incredibly uncertain. Polling numbers look terrible for Labour & Lib Dems. They are getting cold feet 2/4
At same time, they can't agree on caretaker PM to head a National Unity Govt - @jeremycorbyn wants it; no one wants Corbyn. Could we be stuck? No elections? No NU Govt? Just a @BorisJohnson zombie Govt with absolutely nowhere to go or turn? 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
I do think this another unwise & unhelpful intervention by @eucopresident. It certainly does NOT reflect view of some key EU capitals, who actually believe BJ wants a deal but that his starting point was too far apart from EU position. Still, they would like to tread much more 1/
cautiously than this. Clearly see game being played in London but want to rise above it. As one adviser to a Head of State of a large MS told me in the last few days: "Our position won't change just because UK shouts louder." This is about substance (SM integrity; Ireland) 2/3
Not tactics & calculations about what election may/may not deliver. EU27 very capable of reading polls. They see risks of BJ majority & no deal after election, but can't sacrifice principles above. Tusks's tweet risks blurring that message; playing into politics in London ENDS
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
We think @BorisJohnson will pursue a strategy some aides describe as “being dragged, kicking and screaming” into an extension, so Leave voters know he is doing it against his will. This is why he still promises “no delay” even though he knows prospects of a deal are remote 1/4
He may play for time on 19 Oct, so the Benn Act is tested in courts. But politically, outright refusal to obey the law is a non-starter; it could provoke several resignations including those of Geoffrey Cox & @RobertBuckland. Sooner or later, BJ will send letter required by Act
It will likely describe the proposed delay as “Parliament’s extension”, not one sought by Govt. Initially, Boris allies were nervous about impact of an extension. But during last week’s Tory conference they have clearly become more confident - cheered by opinion poll & focus 3/4
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
EU voter friends - I wonder if you've ever wondered what it is that the UK has objected to about various things in the Brexit negotiations? If you have, this thread might be for you.
Let's start with EU citizens' rights. What the UK wanted was for EU citizens living in the UK to have the same rights as UK citizens post-Brexit. What the EU wanted was for EU citizens to have more rights than UK citizens. The UK conceded on that.
Next money. There are 3 boxes the money falls into. One (~€2-4bn) is payments for pensions & the like. The UK was always happy to pay those. A 2nd (€17-18bn) was the UK's EU membership fee out to end-2020. The UK was happy to pay that if it stayed a de facto member til then.+
Read 11 tweets
Profile picture
Michel Barnier
@MichelBarnier
👇 I briefed EU27 Ambassadors and EP today on the ongoing talks with #UK. Following the EU-UK statement of 20 Feb, the EU has proposed to the UK a legally binding interpretation of the #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Most importantly:
2/5 The arbitration panel can already, under Article 178 WA, give UK the right to a proportionate suspension of its obligations under the backstop, as a last resort, if EU breaches its best endeavours/good faith obligations to negotiate alternative solutions.
3/5 EU ready to give legal force to all commitments from January letter of @eucopresident and @JunckerEU through joint interpretative statement. europa.eu/!Kj44wR This will render best endeavour/good faith obligations even more actionable by an arbitration panel.
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
"This could be mitigated by changes to the backstop itself," she wrote to @eucopresident & @JunckerEU "Proposals for a way in which the UK could choose to exit the backstop unilaterally were it ever to come into force, or for a hard time limit... 2/
on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
Read 17 tweets
Profile picture
J.N. PAQUET ✒
@jnpaquet
How @DailyMailUK twisted the results of @Survation poll and created a nice little frontpage to support Theresa May with some beautiful YESes in red and some lovely supporting words, even though the front page does not actually reflects the results of the poll...
So, let's have a closer look at some of the questions asked and the ACTUAL answers of voters...
Q1. When UK Govt's negotiations over the terms of Britain's exit from #EU are complete, would you support or oppose holding a People's Vote - a referendum - asking the public their view?

- Support 48% 👈
- Oppose 34%
- Don't know 18%

Large margin 14% to support a #PeoplesVote!
Read 18 tweets
Profile picture
David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Air boxing by top #UK officials is amazing. Who punching at? Unlike in London, #Brexit never been much fight in Brussels, more lament. When some urged penalty in financial settlement, EU ignored & just tabbed up #'s. Citizen rights a 2-way street. Other stuff mainly logistical..
Point again is not to take any side, but merely point out Brussels has had consistent principles, goals & negotiating positions from the start. London still has no consensus on final objective. No one I know in #EU has advocated for "no deal" but some in #UK actually do that...
Have had many many long conversations w/ top London colleagues. Am very conscious of all arguments & concerns on #UK side, incl over Northern Ireland. But even in no deal scenario, #UK will end up facing exact same choice on future relationship w/ EU as now, but w/o transition...
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So #BorisJohnson and friends are not signed up to €40bn-€60bn #BrexitBill - as we reported

Does that matter? Are they right to be cautious? Where are May/Davis/DexEU on this? Where are the EU? 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/1…
First the bill.

In Florence speech May made two commitments.

1) No EU member will "pay more or receive less over the remainder of the current budget plan" (2014-2020) - so UK pays 2 x €10bn - viz €20bn to fill hole in current EU budget left by Brexit /2
2) "The UK will honour commitments we have made during the period of our membership."

Mrs May did NOT specify what this mean. The EU wants to know.

Given EU emphasis on filling 2014-2020 budget hole, the UK had 1) would be enough for 'sufficient progress'. It wasn't. /3
Read 16 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Britain #SadhviPragyaSinghThakur #external #HashdShabi #Descendantofnightingale #trafficking #licence #EU #merely #Luciferian #Tory #PulwamaTerroristAttack #prohibit #HinduTerror #Romania #ModiOnceMore #Imperialism #SadhviVsDigvijaya #commonlaw #PersianGulf #Unity4J #Syria #Houthis #rights #Jazirah
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!