So strong working assumption of most (including me) is that A50 extension & elections are now almost inevitable. But what if we're all wrong? As one senior EU official says to me: "Whoever sends the letter, we need to know why we do this. That's the REAL question." However 1/4
There is no way for the European Council to mandate an election (or a referendum). And the way an election comes about - or indeed, if one does even come about - is incredibly uncertain. Polling numbers look terrible for Labour & Lib Dems. They are getting cold feet 2/4
At same time, they can't agree on caretaker PM to head a National Unity Govt - @jeremycorbyn wants it; no one wants Corbyn. Could we be stuck? No elections? No NU Govt? Just a @BorisJohnson zombie Govt with absolutely nowhere to go or turn? 3/4
How does EU respond to this? To UK political class being in a no mans land. If not for this extension - which they'll still probably (probably) grant - then the next one? Not inconceivable that this is where we're heading ENDS
