Thread by @Niall001

Thread: On how Johnson's bonkers plan jeopardises the peace process. 1/

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1178760385329074176

So Johnson's plan, apparently involves moving customs sites away from the border - on both sides. In effect, it creates three borders where there was one and then makes it harder. Let's pretend that is fine. But what could that logistically involve from a policing perspective? 2/

Recently, ITV, joined the PSNI for a standard checkpoint in the border area. It required, as standard, four armoured cars, each filled with armed officers:

itv.com/news/2019-08-2… 3/

So, let's underestimate this and pretend that these four armoured cars had only 2 armed officers per car. That's 8 officers per check point.

4/

Now, let's pretend for a moment, that each of these clearance sites only required 8 armed officers to protect them at any one time. Divide a day into three and that's 24 armed officers per clearance site. So, how many would be required? 5/

The border is approximately 500km long. It has over 300 crossings:

belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-…

6/

With over 300 crossings, if every crossing had 24 armed officers (to say nothing of customs officers), that would mean that 7200 armed men would be required every day.

But that is, perhaps, unlikely, as they plan to move the sites away from the border.

7/

Let's pretend that by moving the sites approximately 10km away from the border, they can cut the number of sites down to 30. Optimistic (if it is to be effective) I know, but let's say that there will be 30 sites each requiring just 24 men. That's still 720 armed men.

8/

But wait! The plan is to have sites on both sides of the border. Assuming the Irish government made similar arrangements, then across 60 sites in the border region that would mean approximately 1,400 armed men on the border.

Is that all? Well no . . .

9/

Because such a scheme makes for a rather porous border, it would also require random checks and intelligence led checks in the border region. Let's pretend that just 10 of these are conducted on average per day on either side of the border.

10/

Very quickly, it becomes clear, that the scheme proposed by Johnson conservatively requires approximately 2000 armoured personnel being deployed along the border.

This amounts to re-militarising the border.

11/

And that is before the attacks happen. Customs sites away from the border - as well as other British infrastructure - have been viewed as targets for approximately 70 years. It is possible - no probable - that they would soon become a target

irishtimes.com/news/politics/…

12/

Once these clearance sites were attacked, the response would involve additional protective infrastructure and additional armed police officers.

There is the potential for a quick escalation in the militarisation of the border in response to threats faced by border staff

13/

At this point, it does not matter how "smart" your trusted trader scheme is. The 45 million cross border journeys that occur every year will need security checks.

irishnews.com/news/northerni…

14/

At this point, we can only pray that this is not a serious proposal. We can only pray that Johnson is being as disingenuous as ever. It is an utterly crazy, reckless plan that only a fool or a selfish, Machiavellian villain would consider, let alone endorse. 15/

So keep all of this in mind if you start to hear Johnson supporters claim that this proposal is a viable proposal.

It is nothing short of stupidity. It is dangerous and anybody who supports it, will have some blood on their hands on the first day that somebody dies.

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