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The Chinese regime celebrates 70 years while its clients in Hong Kong are shooting protesters dead. The Muslim philosopher of history Ibn Khuldun observed that states normally last for "around the same lifespan as a human being" - three generations or around 80 years.
Dictators do not rule *only* by force. When a dictator is ruling by naked force alone, he's just about done. No - dictators rule by force + a sort of promise or contract that the people accept based upon their recent history.
What was the "recent history" of the people of China? In the 1960s, 45 million people in China starved to death. As late as the 1980s (when my generation were growing up) we'd be told to eat our food because "there are children starving in China".
So of course a previous generation of Chinese accepted the contract that was given to them. We'll lift you out of poverty and keep you safe, and in return you shut up. But that was a previous generation on the way out. Why would a new generation accept the same contract?
In Hong Kong you can see how, when the contract is broken, even the most apolitical population can *explode* into defiance. What's happening in Hong Kong isn't just a minor bump on the road, it's an existential cancer and a harbinger of the future of China.
Xinjiang and Hong Kong are the two "China models" to watch going forward: What happens when you can't resist, and what happens when you can. The so-called Chinese model of an open economy with a brutally repressive governance is going to come down crashing within a generation.
