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Quick thread about the UAE and its core unsustainabilities:
The UAE has a population of 10 million. Only 1 million out of these are Emarati citizens. The other 9 million are foreigners, some of whom have lived there for a couple generations.
If things remain the same, the UAE is fine. It's rich and its current economic model can provide a very nice welfare system for 1 million citizens. And most of the 1 million are happy to exchange safety and prosperity for political quietism. *If things stay the same*.
Plot twist: Things never remain the same.
This "demographic misbalance" isn't improving. By 2050, it's projected (under current trends) that the UAE will 5% citizens, 95% non-citizens. How sustainable is that?
By 2035, a generation of non-citizens in the UAE will be born whose grandparents were also born in the UAE. And they have no path to citizenship. How sustainable is that?
The UAE's economy is a kind of chimera with Abu Dhabi, an oil-based state with a rentier economy, and Dubai, a "perfect child of neoliberalism" and a non-oil economy based on trade...
Abu Dhabi is currently running the show with all the military adventures, but should there be a backlash against the UAE, who will suffer? Abu Dhabi, a little. Dubai, a *lot*. So far there hasn't been a backlash. *So far*.
What would non-citizens do if there's a backlash against the UAE? Well let me tell you that in 2005 when there were (false) rumors of a tsunami, some were already packing their bags. "We came here to make money, not to die".
Cutting this thread short because I have to run
