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"The US stood behind every Saudi king historically and so it'll continue to stand behind MBS even after Trump". There are actual people pushing this argument. By this logic if I keep up my current weight loss for another three years I'll weigh 5 kgs. History is not linear, folks.
2019 is not 2001.
2019 is not 1991.
And 2021 will not be 2019.
2019 is not 1991.
And 2021 will not be 2019.
In 1991 Saudi Arabia got massive US support in response to Saddam's aggression. It was a great period for US-Saudi relations. In 2001, again US-Saudi relations actually improved.
The Khashoggi murder has been described as the most serious crisis in US-Saudi relations since 9/11. But 9/11 was a rogue operation by an organization that was also violently opposed to Saudi Arabia. The Khashoggi murder is deeply different.
The Khashoggi murder is MBS abusing a special relation with the US, treating the US president as a client of his who he can pay off to do his bidding. And it happened at a time when the US is done fighting wars for oil, because it doesn't need to any more.
MBS and the Emaratis invested so deeply into the GOP - and only the GOP - that there's going to be quite a serious whiplash once the GOP loses the White House. A serious reversal of fortune in Saudi/UAE outreach to the US is coming. Or at least, an opportunity for one.
The world doesn't need Saudi oil as much as it used to (hence Iran bombed Aramco and got away with it). ISIS is gone. Bin Laden (and his son) are gone. Israel can drop bombs across the region with impunity. Much much longer with the US need Saudi Arabia?
(Fine, ISIS isn't gone, but their Caliphate is; it's now an insurgency rather than an empire).
Previous generations of Al-Sauds could count on the US to guarantee their safety and prosperity even if that means shitting on the rest of the region. They grew so used to that that they forgot that the dog is smarter than its tail. They thought the tail can wag the dog.
And so no, blind US support for the Saudi monarchy isn't a fact of nature. It was a fact of geopolitics and global economics, and royals who knew how to stay within the lines; and a US that had an appetite for foreign adventures. All of these have changed. A storm is coming.
I leave you with this. Ponder it. rystadenergy.com/newsevents/new…
