Thread by @nickeardleybbc

Lots of discussion in last week abt an emergency govt to extend article 50 and call an election or referendum.

Labour insisting today Jeremy Corbyn should be PM. But having crunched the numbers again, extremely hard - maybe impossible - to see how that gets a majority (cont)

If govt brought down in vote of no confidence, there's 14 calendar days for someone to show they can command a majority (if they can't there's an election, which would happen in November and after the Brexit deadline).... (cont)

Who would back Corbyn as PM? The magic number is 320 taking away speaker, deputies and Sinn Fein.

Labour MPs - 246 (though maybe not all would actually do it)
SNP - 35

That's 281

(Cont)

It's possible Plaid would end up backing Corbyn if it came to it - that's another 4

Caroline Lucas might - 1

And a trickle of independents, such as Chris Williamson.

Still under 290.

(Cont.)

The Lib Dems have said they wouldn't put Mr Corbyn in No 10. Some like @ChukaUmunna quit Labour because of leadership, so won't budge.

Even if they all changed their minds though, that adds 18.

So still more than ten short of a majority.

It's almost impossible to see the others backing Corbyn for PM.

- The 21 independent former Tories
- Change UK (four of whom quit Labour because of leadership)

Could it all change? Well anything seems possible in this mad political world at the moment. But as things stand, the numbers aren't there for Jeremy Corbyn in No 10.

Here ends my working. Let me know if I've made mistakes.

Good question. There are a number of 'neutral' candidates being discussed in public and behind closed doors.

Labour haven't completely ruled out the idea, but without Lab backing obvs won't get majority.

https://twitter.com/girlofthemirror/status/1179131295336718336