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Jim Grace #FBPE #SackSeumas
@mac_puck
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
@panmisthropist More explanation.
1. I took wages data for each wages decile for 1999-2017. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
2. Put them in a spreadsheet and looked at correlations between immigrant numbers and wage rises. Found strongest correlation was in wage rises the year following the immigration.
@panmisthropist 3. Got excel to calculate the magnitude of the effect (which I compared to the average 3% annual pay rise for a sense of scale)
4. Got Excel to calculate the strength of the correlation.
@panmisthropist 5. Generally:
-the amounts were small
-the correlation was weak
-increases in EU immigration were correlated with increased pay rises
-increases in non-EU immigration were correlated with decreased pay rises.
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Jim Grace #FBPE #SackSeumas
@mac_puck


This, by @rjbarfield1 is VERY relevant to the 2 borders proposal.
1. Generally regulatory barriers (NTBs) are MUCH more costly than customs barriers (tariffs).
2. The exception is agri-food.
3. The £25Bn GB/NI trade is the usual flow of goods you get within any country. Therefore a regulatory border is worse than a customs one, ad per Richard's analysis.

4. The £5Bn NI/IRL trade is dominated by agri-food. In this case a customs border is worse.
Conclusion: if you wanted to inflict the maximum possible damage to the NI economy, you couldn't come up with a more effective borders strategy than the one proposed.
Read 3 tweets
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Jim Grace #FBPE #SackSeumas
@mac_puck
1. UK net transfer to the EU?

The Commons Library worked out the net cash transfer was £8.9Bn in 2018 (see below).

But this was just public sector receipts: it didn't include UK universities and private sector ( another £1 to 2Bn ).

OK: net £7.9Bn then?

Not quite....
2. The EU sends cash to the MS's AND PROVIDES SERVICES for them.

See EU accounts ec.europa.eu/budget/graphs/…

In 2018 MS's recieved €130Bn in cash AND €26.236Bn in services in kind.
UK pop = 13% of EU
13% of €26Bn = €3.4Bn = £3.1 Bn

OK: net £4.8Bn then?

Not quite....
3. The EU funds decentralised regulatory agencies throughout the EU.
After Brexit these must be replicated in the UK on a standalone basis.

Cost of decentralised agencies in 2018: €1.231Bn = £1.1Bn

OK: Net £3.7 Bn then?

Not quite...
Read 7 tweets
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Jim Grace #FBPE
@mac_puck
@guyverhofstadt @MichelBarnier @eucopresident @JunckerEU @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @PhilHoganEU

1/
 You agreed NI-only backstop, until the DUP objected strongly and you extended it to UK-wide.

HMG may now offer to revert to an NI-only backstop. This would be a GRAVE MISTAKE.
2/
 No Deal creates a regulatory border on £5Bn IRL/NI trade. This would be bad for S. Down, S. Armagh, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Co.Derry.

NI-only backstop creates a regulatory border on £25Bn of GB/NI trade.This would be DEVASTATING for Belfast, Antrim, N Down, N. Armagh.
3/
 It would thus bring a perfect storm of mass unemployment to the working class protestant heartlands of NI combined with a simultaneous cutting loose of the ties to Britain.

I believe this scenario brings a risk of worse violence than nationalist response to an Irish border.
Read 6 tweets

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