, 6 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
@guyverhofstadt @MichelBarnier @eucopresident @JunckerEU @LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @PhilHoganEU

1/
You agreed NI-only backstop, until the DUP objected strongly and you extended it to UK-wide.

HMG may now offer to revert to an NI-only backstop. This would be a GRAVE MISTAKE.
2/
No Deal creates a regulatory border on £5Bn IRL/NI trade. This would be bad for S. Down, S. Armagh, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Co.Derry.

NI-only backstop creates a regulatory border on £25Bn of GB/NI trade.This would be DEVASTATING for Belfast, Antrim, N Down, N. Armagh.
3/
It would thus bring a perfect storm of mass unemployment to the working class protestant heartlands of NI combined with a simultaneous cutting loose of the ties to Britain.

I believe this scenario brings a risk of worse violence than nationalist response to an Irish border.
4/
Furthermore, whereas nationalist violence is likely to be directed at border infrastructure and targets in NI and GB, loyalist attacks are likely to occur in Dublin...or Brussels. (Plus the usual random murders of innocent Catholics in Belfast of course.)
5/
HMG may offer to revert to the NI-only backstop, to honour the letter of the Belfast Agreement and remove a roadblock to future EU and US trade deals, but the spirit of the BA was the consent of the NI population and the purpose of the BA was an end to bloodshed.
6/
Please consider carefully before you snatch at HMG's offer. Better to give the 2-year extension mooted by France (and watch the Brexit project disintegrate.) Or insist any deal is confirmed by 2nd ref. Or say "actually, upon reflection, no: this breaches loyalist consent"

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