Thread by @sethjlevy

1/ I just watched the Pelosi Schiff press conference.

First point is Pelosi insists she wants to pass USMCA, prescription drug legislation and infrastructure.

Second, Schiff admits the Congress would be forced to litigate whether the WH must comply with pseudo impeachment.

2/ He threatens that if the WH goes that direction the Congress will view that as obstruction and assume it means the implied issues by the WB are true.

But this is a BS threat and actually exposed how weak the Democrats hand actually is.

3/ Pelosi and her moderate members will never vote to impeach Trump on the basis of the Executive exerting it’s constitutionally given powers.

Never. It would be political suicide.

4/ Let’s get to the heart of it. It’s not like earlier this year Giuliani was trying to hide what he was doing. In fact, he was doing everything he could to get people to pay attention. Then he announced publicly at the time he was cancelling his trip due to anti-Trump forces.

5/ Trump wasn’t trying to hide anything. In fact Pompeo was on the call. So now Democrat’s want you to believe Pompeo, a long term politician of the highest ethics is participating in a Trump centric corrupt influence on Ukraine. It’s total stupidity.

6/ Now I want to reference the market. It’s down 1,000 points in the last two days. First I’m not giving financial advice. But I am saying this market sell off helps Trump. It influenced the Fed to cut. I’ve been explaining that is key to the China trade deal timing.

7/ So what is to come? The odds that Schiff starts adding conspiracy stupidity to what he is stating publicly is very high. But Pelosi will need to keep him on a short leash. Her majority is in peril.

8/ My prediction is that Pelosi ultimately calls off the impeachment saying we know enough of the details and they are damning. But we believe it is time to let the voters decide in 2020.

9/ What isn’t quantified in is the impact of FISA report and any finding or indictment from Durham. Pelosi’s concerns over what will come on these fronts is why they dropped Russia and switched to Ukraine. It’s a new action by Trump not tied to 2016. Abusing power to get Biden.

10/ Keep in mind I’m not saying that’s my view of it but it’s how Pelosi will portray it.

But again, ultimately Trump will defend executive privilege, Schiff will scream and litigate but Pelosi will not force her moderate Democrats to actually bot on an impeachment.

11/ What we will likely get is a report written by Schiff that sounds terrible but amounts to nearly nothing.

Trump survives and thrives.

12/ However, Joe Biden’s campaign is mortally wounded. He may still win the nomination but his family profiting from his office particularly in China is the center of the general election.

13/ And nothing above even begins to calculate in the potential that Trump designed this whole op to reveal information centered in Ukraine.

I’ll just hint that it’s possible the ongoing Crimea issue was designed to strip Ukraine of their gas wealth.

Anyway, more later. /end