Thread by @MarkUrban01

Back from Brussels where, if you believe the 'they always cave at the 11th hour' mantra (I don't, just ask the Greeks) they would have to be softening their Brexit position by now in order to close the remaining gaps by the 17/10 summit. Actually EU27 stance has hardened 1/7

- the EU27 refused a British request to keep negotiating through this weekend;
- they say the gaps are too wide for the two sides to enter the 'tunnel' or pre-summit negotiating purdah;
- Merkel & Macron declined to change their diaries in order to see Boris Johnson 2/7

the toughening EU27 stance is designed to force major concessions from the UK, but equally it shows that the threats of economic damage though No Deal are non-operative in their calculations. They are willing to take the pain if they have to, but doubt they will 3/7

In this sense No10 is right in saying the Benn Act has undermined its negotiating position. EU folk I spoke to, maybe wrongly, all expect an extension & don't think that Johnson will find a way around it. As for the idea Hungary might veto an extension 4/7

Downing St denies asking the Hungarians to veto extension. A well placed Hungarian source told me recently 'we will not break ranks with the 27', adding witheringly, 'what on earth could you give us to compensate for the harm that would do with our relations with Germany?' 5/7

The EU hardening exploits perceived UK weakness + No10's need for a deal. The aim is to force a complete re-think, notably with the UK agreeing to put Customs checks on the Irish Sea, along with regulatory ones. That could bring agreement relatively quickly but... 6/7

Even if the UK shifted its position on Customs it's unlikely detailed papers could be ready for summit on 17th so there might be an extra one later this month. But even if all this was possible, could such a revised plan get through UK parliament? 7/7