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How better to protect British shipping in the Gulf? Back in 1987 I did a trip reporting on the effort then, the Armilla Patrol. 3-4 frigates or destroyers was the norm then, I went aboard Andromeda & Brazen. Now tho a significant lift is not possible 1/9
At the time of my Armilla reporting @RoyalNavy had 47 frigates & destroyers, now it's 19. This smaller force is stretched across global commitments. What's more the threat in the Gulf has evolved 2/9
In 1987 the Iranian navy had no submarines, now 20+. Anti-ship missile capability, drones, & mines have all improved a good deal. We *really* don't want to lose a frigate. I wrote about this erosion of western superiority in The Edge. Our choices now v limited 3/9
More convoying with allies, under US leadership, is the obvious short term solution. But our strategic view of the Iran crisis is v different to US admin right now. If the US gets into a large scale confrontation there could be big risks, well beyond the Gulf 4/9
As MI5 knows only too well, there is evidence that Iran has used proxies to create sleeper cells in several western countries. These could be activated in time of large scale conflict 5/9 telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/0…
So the UK is in a uniquely tricky strategic bind: large scale trading responsibilities in the Gulf without the means to protect them; a capable and assertive Iran; big differences of view with US allies. It's not an easy moment 6/9
It is possible that the UK could muster a small coalition of the willing to convoy ships - including France & Oman. But it urgently needs to increase its capabilities. Even if 1 or 2 more escort ships can be sent, that will be hard to sustain 7/9
The UK needs to position an assault ship or auxiliary + use Omani bases to bring into play: fast attack craft; Apache helicopters; support helicopters; + Reaper drones. A rapid borrow of US swift boats may be needed. But RN, RM, SBS are excellent at these Ops 8/9
This is a fix that would put fast moving escort & response capabilities into place. But of course that's useless without robust Rules of Engagement + political will. An opportunity to show multi-national leadership or further humiliation? 9/9
