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, 3 tweets, 1 min read
So a lot happening today - but Irish Budget interesting, based on No Deal as central assumption. €1 billion , €410 million is for social protection/ welfare.

No Deal Brexit sees 3.8% hit to GDP (similar to IFS UK number) and 2% hit to jobs over 5 years:
Ireland currently runs a surplus, so has earmarked extra borrowing if needed to support agriculture, business/ tourism and food in No Deal.
Eg €85 million for beef farmers, €14m for fisheries, €40m for tourism...
(NB UK equivalent is Kingfisher - still not much detail on this)
... and €365 million No Deal spending for extra Social Protection Spending for registered unemployed - given the register is at about 180k, that’s about €2k per person.

They are supporting transformation/ transition of businesses with grants, loans & equity funding
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Here are some vague parameters on the Irish Sea border... you have to go to the Impact Assessment of the Bill....

- “Ongoing costs” of Goods trade customs administration “between GB & NI” (ie both ways - including the Exit Summary Declarations)
“West - East”
Ie for N. Ireland goods “exports” to Great Britain - “The Protocol would result in additional costs” due to “practical information needed to be provided” — not required in no deal. “Not been possible” to calculate due to data limitations...
This is because EU Customs law will apply (Annex 2 Protocol contains 300 such regulations, directives from customs to safety to car regs etc) to Northern Ireland, and therefore EU’s legal requirement for an Exit Summary Declaration will be maintained...
Read 11 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Here is the Withdrawal Agreement Bill... publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill…
remember EU Withdrawal Act 2018 (once called the Great Repeal Bill) - repealing European Communities Act In first line...

EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill 2019 first measure is to amend first line of EU Withdrawal Act 2018 and temporarily unrepeal the repeal for implementation ...
Last I checked, Bill Cash was not best pleased with the temporary unrepeal of the repeal - it is because EU law will still in implementation period require a conduit, because it will still apply, and there it is. Not sure why it’s called implementation any more...
Read 5 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Appears to me that Government website has markedly toned down the plastering of the “Get Ready for Brexit” campaign on every page. Less emphasis on the date. On actual pages “UK could still leave on October 31st”.

Civil service quick off mark.
Can’t see this little “Brexit: 31 October” logo on the live advertising headers and footers on the Government website either... certainly now of limited prominence
£100m No Deal preparedness ad campaign: a tale in three parts...

September:
“The UK will leave the EU on 31 October 2019”

Early October:
“We’re due to leave on 31 October”

Today:
”We could still leave with No Deal on 31 October 2019”
Read 7 tweets

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Brigid Laffan
@BrigidLaffan
#Brexit beyond current crisis. Question. If we assume that the #HMG & U.K. need a deal with EU27 at some stage, how does what PM Johnson is doing affect this. @BrigidLaffan
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Bruno Waterfield
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#Brexit
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KT #Ode2Joy Parker🐬
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Today is possibly .@theresa_may's last day as PM, if .@BorisJohnson can command a majority (which is in some doubt...)

So it's a great opportunity to look back at some of the *highlights* of Mrs May's premiership in memes👇
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Andy Gibson
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#Brexit
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The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
You're bored of Brexit, right? Yeah so am I so is everyone. So you won't like this but I have bad news. We will still be talking about Brexit for many more years, maybe a decade - WHATEVER happens. However the events of the next few weeks play out. Think about it (thread): 1/
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