Thread by @jonworth

Sorry to keep coming back to this, but prorogation and the schedule for 14-22 October in the Commons *can* give us crucial clues as to what the Govt is trying to do on #Brexit

If this were a *normal* prorogation and Queen’s Speech, the speech would be Monday 14 Oct and the vote on it either Monday 21 Oct or Tuesday 22 Oct

The Commons would normally NOT sit on Friday 18 Oct

But these aren’t normal times

Other things get in the way...

Thu 17 & Fri 18 Oct - European Council

Sat 19 Oct - Benn Act deadline to extend

Mon 21 Oct - nobile officium returns to Court if govt doesn’t comply with Benn Act

Then there’s the no confidence question - voting down a Queen’s Speech is considered a confidence question. But doesn’t start the 14 day clock ticking to form a new government as the FTPA does

Then there’s the widely reported news that the Government intends to get the Commons to sit on Saturday 19 Oct, the day after the European Council (but not sit on 18 or 20 Oct)

The crucial - as yet unanswered - question is the order of the steps

Is it:
14 Oct Queen’s Speech
19 Oct Vote on Queen’s Speech *before* Benn deadline, PM might resign, then Raab not Johnson requests extension

Or:
14 Oct Queen’s Speech
17-18 Oct European Council, last ditch effort to get deal
19 Oct Vote on Deal if Johnson gets one, he extends if he doesn’t
21 Oct Queen’s Speech vote and VONC if necessary

In other words there are 2 possible reasons for the 19 Oct sitting idea: EITHER they still want to vote on a Deal before the Benn Act deadline (pretty unlikely) OR this is engineering a means to remove Johnson (more plausible?)

I suppose there could be a third option - based on the first. That a massive pro-Remain March is planned for 19th, could they seek to provoke violence to trigger the Civil Contingencies Act? I think that’s too far, even for this government.

Also we have heard repeatedly that the Government will respect the law. But Johnson says he will nor request the extension (as he told Sassoli yesterday). Is the way to square this to get someone *else* to extend?

The key to understanding what the government is trying to do here is in this ordering and scheduling. The question is then: what is the right conclusion?

Views of Commons specialists @cath_haddon @Brigid_Fowler would be welcome. @NickBoles wdyt? @sundersays this builds on your theory. @syrpis @DomWalsh13 your views? /ends

And sorry: those of you saying Johnson will just bring back May’s Deal for a MV4 on 19 Oct - no. Johnson has dug in so completely on that he’d never dare. He’d not dare IMHO.

And now all put into a #BrexitDiagram

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1182050783635935232