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, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Thanks to feedback from @Astro_Wright (who rightly pointed out I was missing an arrow that Corbyn could continue to avoid a VONC post-Queen's Speech), there's a new #BrexitDiagram V27.1 - this doesn't change the outcomes though
Reminder how all this compares to last week:
3% ⬇️ No Deal 31 Oct
8% ⬇️⬇️ Revoke by 31 Oct
10% 🆕 Stalemate
48% ⬆️ General Election 2019
14% ↔️ General Election 2020
14% ⬇️⬇️ #PeoplesVote 2020
3% ⬆️ Brexit with Deal
What's caused the changes?

Essentially it's because now all the decisions UK side will have to happen after the European Council, and working out the precise sequencing of each stage is complex
This diagram is so large you probably need the full res version to read it - that's here: techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

And as ever all the files and workings etc. are on my blog here: jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends
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More from @jonworth see all

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So tunnelling in Brussels... means more diagramming for me!

New #BrexitDiagram V28, in light of today's developments
tl;dr - even though everyone is talking about a Deal, that doesn't make a Deal more likely. It makes an Article 50 extension and a General Election more likely.
Above all that the mood is positive means the chances of an Article 50 extension are up - because "a deal is around the corner" gives Johnson cover to extend, and the EU reason to not deny the UK an extension
Read 6 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So @timjoyce11 rightly pointed out that #BrexitDiagram V27.1 did not adequately cover what would happen if May's Deal were brought back on 19 Oct with a #PeoplesVote attached...

V27.2 tries to cover this
We know that @hilarybennmp would want to try this route on 19 Oct, it's hard to know if there's a majority for it (it's ages since @peterkyle tried similar)

Plus what would happen were it successful has not even been debated - would Johnson actually do this? Or sooner resign?
Chances of a GE slip a little, chances of a #PeoplesVote increase a little

High res image here:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

And as ever all on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
Read 3 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
🤯

Sometimes #Brexit just gets a whole lot more complex

And that makes the #BrexitDiagram a whole load worse...

New version 27 - now a massive 5930x8318 pixels in size, to make sense of it all!
So what changed here?
- the @DaleVince @JolyonMaugham @joannaccherry case
- negotiations close to breaking down in Brussels
- the Govt suggesting the Commons will sit Saturday 19 Oct, and how this plays with the Queen's Speech and vote on that
All of this has the chances of No Deal, #PeoplesVote and Revoke slipping a bit, the chances of a General Election steady in comparison to last week. And a new entry - that all this ends up with more stalemate has a 10% chance
Read 5 tweets

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