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, 6 tweets, 3 min read
(OK, trying again, hopefully with the right links this time...)

Here's an overview of our new NBA player rating metric, RAPTOR! We use RAPTOR both to evaluate past performance and to project players and teams going forward. We think it's pretty sweet!

fivethirtyeight.com/features/intro…
Here are our team forecasts, which have been updated to use RAPTOR. Winners/losers in NBA title odds vs. our old version:

Winners:
Clippers: 6% —> 17%
Rockets: 21% —> 26%
Bucks: 11% —> 15%
Nuggets: 3% —> 6%

Losers:
76ers: 27% —> 10%
Lakers: 12% —> 4% 😬

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predi…
And here are our RAPTOR-powered player forecasts for ~700 current NBA players and rookies. Luka Doncic (no surprise) gets a really nice one!
In the overview post, you can also find links to download past RAPTOR ratings since 2013-14. We'll of course also be publishing RAPTOR ratings for 2019-20 once we get enough games into the new season to have a decent sample size. fivethirtyeight.com/features/intro…
These last two links are for those of you who are very detail-oriented about NBA metrics. This is a much longer, 8,000-word version of the methodology behind RAPTOR. fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-o…
Finally, here's a github link to download past RAPTORs, including historical estimates* of RAPTOR since 1976-77.

They're ESTIMATES because RAPTOR uses player tracking data, so you can't calculate RAPTOR proper before 2013-14. Still these are kind of fun: github.com/fivethirtyeigh…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It's not baffling at all! It has an incredibly simple explanation, in fact, although one that implicitly undercuts the article's thesis:

There's nothing magic about digital ad spending.
We're supposed to believe that the Trump campaign is a bunch of super-geniuses for spending extensively on Facebook ads, whereas everyone who works for one of the 19 Democratic campaigns is an idiot?
Far more likely is that they've studied this stuff with *some* empirical rigor, rather than buying into the largely evidence-free media mythology about the effectiveness of digital campaign ads.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
With few exceptions—Bernie may be one—I'd say it's extremely hard to tell how much of a politician's positions reflect their "authentic" personal beliefs vs. things they say "to get elected". So when people try to make those distinctions, your BS detectors should be set to high.
Furthermore, quite often the notion of "authenticity" has been wielded in a way to make it harder for women and people of color to get elected, e.g. they're described as too ambitious or not true to themselves. That's another reason to be wary of it.
Finally, it's not obvious that it's preferable in a representative democracy to have a politician who sticks to his or her personal beliefs at all times. Nor do you want someone who's always flip-flopping. But you probably do want some responsiveness to one's constituents.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
This whole article on Michael Bennet is sort of a fascinating j-school case study on the ideology of the political press. But it's main thesis seems to be pretty flawed in that it treats n=1 (Trump) as a new paradigm. politi.co/2J0P0zE
The past 5 people nominated for president are: McCain, Obama, Romney, Hillary Clinton, Trump. That's quite a lot of voters choosing "pragmatic, deliberate" restraint over demagogy ⁠— with one big exception. But Trump is unpopular and his presidency is in jeopardy.
Also, like, Michael Bennet, really? Even if D voters were to prefer temperamental moderation, there are more well-credentialed (Biden) and/or diverse (Booker) and/or interesting (Buttigieg) choices, all of whom got into the POTUS race earlier than Bennet's half-assed bid.
Read 3 tweets

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Shay Castle
@shayshinecastle
New thread for Alpine-Balsam. There are kinda two parts to this: A look at the Pavilion building and if it makes sense to renovate that, and then the Area Plan.
Staff presentation for the first: www-static.bouldercolorado.gov/docs/5C_Alpine…
And a couple of definitions. When we say Area Plan, we're talking about the geographic area that runs along Broadway from roughly Balsam Ave. to North Street, and 9th to 13th Streets east-west.
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Darcey Dupuis
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Mega Thread of Opinion (1 of 52)

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Kara Swisher
@karaswisher
Ok trying AGAIN @jack in another new thread! This one about @realDonaldTrump #KaraJack:

We know a lot more about what Donald Trump thinks because of Twitter, and we all have mixed feelings about that.
@jack @realDonaldTrump Have you ever considered suspending Donald Trump? His tweets are somewhat protected because he’s a public figure, but would he have been suspended in the past if he were a “regular” user? #karajack
@jack @realDonaldTrump And will Twitter’s business/engagement suffer when @realDonaldTrump is no longer President? #karajack
Read 3 tweets
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Patera Quetzal
@PateraQuetzaI
gather round, children, and get ready for a story about Why There's No Video Game Industry Subtitle Standard

subtitling movies and television is very, very simple. almost too simple. the US subtitle standard was created in 1968 (the first show to be subtitled was "Mod Squad"!) The European Broadcast Union was created in 1972. these standards ("Closed Captioning") are still used today
movie and television subtitling is, by design, incredibly stupid
- you have a string (probably a binary string, as these standards predate ASCII and Unicode)
- you have a time code, either hour:minutes:seconds or total framecount en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EIA-608
Read 30 tweets
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Sibel Edmonds
@sibeledmonds
#Khashoggi Case Thread: I am going to ‘pin’ this post to use it as an ‘Info Thread’ on the #Khashoggi Case. I am in #Turkey. I’ve been following the case closely and with access to sources & experts here. This is a very ‘sensitive’ criminal case due to ‘Diplomatic Booby Traps’!!!
The Evidence Obtained Outside Cameras will not show any evidence of ‘tempering’ but other than license plates of dozens of diplomatic cars (Many with tinted windows-large trunks) with related time stamp, drivers Info, model/year: Nothing.
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G. Elliott Morris📈🤷‍♂️
@gelliottmorris
New #PA Congressional map is pretty much the best one Democrats could have hoped for. At least 2 pickups in neutral environment, likely ability to win 11 in current D+6 environment. Post coming
PA redraw creates map that is almost entirely drawn from scratch. Huge shifts from 2016 plan all over the place. Dems favored to win 9 seats there in almost any national environment.
(big swings mostly from renumbering, but aggregate differences are clear)
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