Profile picture
, 3 tweets, 1 min read
It's not baffling at all! It has an incredibly simple explanation, in fact, although one that implicitly undercuts the article's thesis:

There's nothing magic about digital ad spending.
We're supposed to believe that the Trump campaign is a bunch of super-geniuses for spending extensively on Facebook ads, whereas everyone who works for one of the 19 Democratic campaigns is an idiot?
Far more likely is that they've studied this stuff with *some* empirical rigor, rather than buying into the largely evidence-free media mythology about the effectiveness of digital campaign ads.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Nate Silver

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NateSilver538 see all

Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Although Warren draws fairly broadly from different candidates' coalitions, Buttigieg supporters are more likely to have Warren as their 2nd choice than any other major candidate. projects.economist.com/democratic-pri…
So if pro-Warren folks instinctually see Buttigieg as a threat, that instinct is correct, I think. (He could also complicate her path in Iowa.) Folks who are really into Warren's lefty policy ideas aren't gonna love Pete, but not that many people vote on the basis of ideology.
My colleague @baseballot had a bit more on this dynamic in a story today: 53eig.ht/36bQzoq
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Again, not a ton of recent polls. But it does seem like Warren's numbers are flat after several months of continuous improvement.

53eig.ht/2Wnom9Q
A couple of interrelated observations:

1) Warren's still in a pretty good position
2) At some point, she'll need to expand her coalition further and she may have picked off most of the low-hanging fruit.
3) "Momentum" is a bit overrated
By "momentum is a bit overrated", I mean this: If a candidate went from polling at 10% *last* month to 15% this month, you might assume she's bound to improve to 20% *next* month. Empirically, that's not true, though. She's roughly as likely to go back down to 10% as up to 20%.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
A lot of the analysis that asks "how is Biden still winning?" seems to miss a major element in his support: A lot of D voters are moderate, or "somewhat liberal" rather than "very liberal", and prefer Biden's somewhat liberal, Obama-ish policy positions to Warren/Bernie/etc.
I'm a broken record on this, but the contrast between the media perception of Biden's doing vs. the polls is fairly profound and should probably beget more self-reflection. He's basically in the same position in the RCP average today (27%) as when he launched his campaign (29%).
Biden's still an underdog relative to the field IMO. Certainly not the most robust frontrunner. Warren campaign going well. Others have a shot. But his position has been steady enough for long enough that some of the savvy early DC takes on his viability already qualify as wrong.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Tony G 🇺🇸 ⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️
@TonyG10458326
1)
 #QAnon #MAGA @realDonaldTrump
This thread is about the connection to Quantum Mechanics and clues about Quantum Computers in Q drops.

This thread took me a while to put together. The subject matter can be a little overwhelming and I tried to keep it simple.
2)
 It is hard to avoid the time it takes to explain this subject so I am supplying links to read and videos to watch if you are interested.
3)
 If the suggestion that the science of Quantum Mechanics implies that our conscious thoughts could possibly be a parameter that determines our reality and that space and time could be tools of our mind bores you, feel free to skip over reading those parts.
Read 113 tweets
Profile picture
Paul Knox
@paulgknox
You know, I know you’re new to Twitter and all, so I’ll try to be gentle and honest. All kidding and snark aside. Really. I mean it.

Please, please never do this again. You can’t be serious because until a couple of hours ago you didn’t know I existed. That’s not enough time. 1/
2 Plus you’re in Kansas, or so it seems, and I’m not, and I don’t think you know where I am. So the “program” you’d be recommending would have to be online or a hotline and I can’t imagine what would be likely to help, assuming I needed help (about which you didn’t ask). 2/
3 So I’m kind of thinking your “help” post might have been just a jokey debating tactic. But maybe not. You “diagnosed” @NoLore with NPD so heaven knows what you figure I’m suffering from.

Anyway please don’t ever joke about #MentalHealthMatters on Twitter or any other ... 3/
Read 14 tweets
Profile picture
Sotiri Dimpinoudis ❁‏
@sotiridi
#Fact: Did you know that In January, February and March of 2019, 8,493 people were murdered in #Mexico, they say that this is the most violent first quarter on record that is a jump of 9% above the start of 2018, which was a record at the time.
They also say that the City of "Mexico City" experienced a 46% increase in the number of homicide victims compared to the first quarter of 2018 with that of 2019. #Mexico
I also made a news article on the crime increases in Tijuana the border city to the #US! That 14 people got killed in a 24 hour mark in #Tijuana. sotiridi.com/world/14-peopl…
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
PJ Sage
@peejsage
⁦I need to take a moment to respond to @LinderPG⁩ & ⁦@PittsburghPG’s⁩ uncritical celebration of ⁦@MarinusAI⁩ creating tools for cops to further target marginalized communities of sex workers

(thread) post-gazette.com/business/tech-…
white liberal savior complex anyone?

“Emily Kennedy’s high-tech mission to stop human trafficking began years ago when she was traveling through Serbia, Macedonia and Albania.”
Yes, the Web has become popular for advertising things. Sex work is one of those things. What evidence exists that sex work ads = sex trafficking?

“the internet has become a popular tool for human traffickers, particularly in the sex trade, to advertise and sell their victims.”
Read 28 tweets
Profile picture
Ahmad Al-Jallad
@Safaitic
I finally had a moment to think about the second line of the text. This is what I think it says:
1) rzq-n m-fḍl-k
'bless us with your favor' (suggested in the original pub; see nxt tweet)
2) w ʾṯr-n mḫh śkmt ʾymn
'and grant us the best of it (your favor): the gift of faith'
commentary:
ʾṯr is probably an imperative of ʾaṯṯara, perhaps 'to make follow' > 'to grant'
mḫ: Ar. muḫḫ 'brain', 'choice part'
śkmt: śukmat 'a gift'
ʾymn: 'faith', but implies a pronunciation 'ʾaymān'.
Here is the edition's (Al-Hajj et al. 2019) interpretations.
The text was carved next to a cave near the summit of a steep mountain. Perhaps it commemorates the spiritual experience of our nameless author during a ritual of social isolation and meditation a millennium and a half ago. (photos from Al-Hajj et al.; see bib of original tweet).
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
JayEnAar
@GorwayGlobal
On the eve of the #2ndAnniversary of the #DeMonetisation that we know was a #DemonetisationDisaster I present a Tweet thread on my analysis of just one of the many claims made for it - that it would boost #cashless #digital transactions. It did not do that. Here's my evidence:
The analysis and paper (Draft 1) is here:
on issuu: issuu.com/home/published…
and
on Scribd: scribd.com/document/39252…
But here in this thread I present the main results. Previous analysts used a simplistic approach of doing a before-after comparison. But this is a spurious method
It leads to the Post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. See rationalwiki.org/wiki/Post_hoc,…
My analytical approach was simple. I used the figures from RBI and took the monthly data upto Oct 2016 on each idicator and treated it as a regular time series data. (see robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/fpp/)
Read 18 tweets

Trending hashtags

#StopBrexit #CONSERVATIVES #feminism #ad #waves #Q2037 #Digital #DemonetisationDisaster #Mexico #GovernmentShutdown #FBPE #MentalHealthMatters #movie #Propaganda #JFKJrLives #sponsored #cloud #YouMatter #NODACA #StockSelection #Fact #IL #WomenInScience #FactCheck #banks
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!