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, 19 tweets, 5 min read
Back in the saddle and a few simple observations...

What do I know? But this looks corrective (CNY)...
What do I know? But this looks corrective (Copper)...
What do I know? But this looks corrective (Oil)...
What do I know? But this looks corrective (AUD)...
What do I know? But this looks corrective (Euro)...
What do I know? But this looks corrective (KRW)...
What do I know? But this looks corrective (US 2 yr yields)...
What do I know? But this looks corrective (US 10 yr yields)...
What do I know? But this looks corrective (Dec 2021 Eurodollar futures)...
What do I know? But this looks corrective (Gold)...
What do I know? But this looks corrective (Bitcoin)...
What do I know? But this looks like the correction is over (CESI US)
What do I know? But this does not look corrective! (ISM)...
What do I know? But this does not look corrective! (ISM New Orders)...
What do I know? But this does not look corrective! (ISM Exports)...
What do I know? But this does look ready to sharply corrective! (SPX)...
Let's see. I think growth is weaker than people understand and the environment remains more fragile than investors are positioned for. For example, the market is still running near to the largest net short 2 yr futures positions on record...
Also, thank you in advance for your own read of my charts or your analysis as of why I have made terrible chart crimes or dint understand TA after 30 years. I do appreciate your thoughts, but will most probably choose to ignore them. Im interested in context only.
Oh, yes I know I cant spell or even construct a simple sentence correctly. 51 years and I still haven't mastered the basics...
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More from @RaoulGMI see all

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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
It is coming...

The central banks have been flagging it for a while. From the BoE to the ECB, and now the IMF. The stable coin potentially solves many issues for the global system which is overly reliant on the dollar.
The stable coin suggested by Libra is clever because it is not a basket of currencies versus the dollar, but a basket that includes the dollar, this is incredible stable as the denominator is essentially money supply. This got the attention of the CB's
Now, Libra-style stable coins are far from perfect but they are potentially better for the digital world we live in. CB's like them because it doesn't exclude sovereignty and all the rights and benefits that conveys, but many are already discussing a sovereign crypto currency
Read 9 tweets
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
So, we are in a Fed easing cycle and ISM is below 50 and falling and YC inverted...

The bond market just tightened 50bps in the sell off.

The money markets are tightened to wipe out the coming 25bpc cut

And will tighten much more as a HUGE $600bn of liquidity is drained.
Oil prices tighten financial conditions.

The dollar is rising again, tightening conditions.

The US and China are engaged in economic warfare which equates to more tightening

There are increasing tariffs on the EU too.

Brexit.
Geopolitical tensions are extremely high.

Ford got downgraded to junk, risking the start of the Doom Loop.

And then we are going into seasonal pension fund selling for Baby Boomers (RMD).

It’s probably nothing, right? Q4 should be a breeze..
Read 3 tweets
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
The Reuters All Commodities Index from 1980...
And from 1914...
Or The Economist Commodity Index from 1850 (replete with same head and shoulders top).
Read 5 tweets

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Jeremy Walter, CFP®
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So frustrating to #know the answer to the question of how to formulate that #TheoryOfEverything #scientists say is the biggest unsolved problem in #physics, yet they don't even want to look at it:

tuks.nl/wiki/index.php…

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zetaraffix in Amsterdam
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#observations after @YoastCon
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Cyrus Toulabi
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#OBSERVATIONS: A few thoughts in reflecting on the Trump legal team letter that argues the President is above the law.

1. TRUMP'S LAWYERS BASICALLY CONCEDE HE OBSTRUCTED JUSTICE.

They aren't saying he didn't obstruct. They're saying because he's the President, it's not a crime.
2. TRUMP'S TEAM LEAKED THE LETTER, DESPITE TRUMP ACCUSING MUELLER'S TEAM OF THE LEAK.

Trump tweeted this week that he doesn’t have time to focus on the Russia investigation b/c he's so busy president-ing...

WHICH IS THE SAME ARGUMENT MADE IN THE LETTER.

Here's Trump accusing Mueller's team of leaking...

We know the Special Counsel doesn't leak.

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Peter Bell
@peternbell
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