1. There is no immediacy clause for TR’s incursion in Syria. In fact, the conditions for hot pursuit have not been established, hence overwhelming international concern/condemnation. What concerns did the joint patrols not address that required a military incursion?
2. Thinking that if Turkey is able to “explain” its message is a failure of public diilomacy. You first have to have a sellable message. There is only so much you can do with image of radical elements decapitating women (ref: @kinikli88_ENG)
3. The incursion creates a dual problem of breach of sovereignty and duty of care. What right does TR have in int law to determine where refugees are settled in Syria and tamper w/existing demographic realities? What will TR do to alleviate mass civilian suffering/casualties?
4. TR will be unable to satisfy the int community of the legitimacy of its actions for decades to come, much like its unrelenting position following the Cyprus intervention in 1974, which initially was justifiable and satisfied immediacy parameters
5. What efforts to end the Kurdish conflict have been exhausted prior to speedily implementing military incursion? Talks w/Salih Muslum which Ankara laid out the red carpet for until recently? Internally, are we now going to see a reinvigorated Kurdish peace process?
6. TR played a front and center role in creating Iraqi Kurdistan. Hot pursuits, bombing of Iraqi targets, playing one Kurdish leader off another has yielded no gains for TR except drive nationalist sentiment, drive up the death toll & reinforce the view that “Turkey has no friend
other than Turkey”
7. All those who try to contextualize what the int community has dubbed an invasion know that they are simply wrong. TR through this action is being marginalized and transformed into a regional pariah that satisfies one maxim: “might is right”.
8. None of the security concerns (lacking immediacy) will be resolved in this onslaught, which only benefits Erdogan and satisfies individual/societal motivations for revenge. If interested in conflict resolution, look to examples in Colombia and the UK.
The time tested mantra still holds: war is not the answer. There are numerous other options to realize TR’s security concerns which all know have not been considered-why an insistence on war?
