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, 6 tweets, 5 min read
New @YouGov poll in @timesredbox today
Con 37% +2
Lab 22% ±0
Lib Dem 18% -2
Brexit 11% -1
Green 5% -1
(Change since 8-9 Oct) nuk-tnl-deck-email.s3.amazonaws.com/2/ec4a427258aa…
@YouGov @timesredbox Average of 4 latest polls from different cos this month (1-15 Oct)
Con 35%
Lab 25%
Lib Dem 18%
Brexit Party 12%
Green 5%
People will vote differently in an election, but projecting these vote shares, using Panelbase for Scotland, produces Con majority 78 electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/userco…
@YouGov @timesredbox If Johnson gets a deal, politics likely to revert sharply to "normal", Brexit Party & Lib Dems losing ground, Cons widening lead over Lab
@YouGov @timesredbox Update: fieldwork for today's @YouGov 14-15 Oct d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_upload…
@YouGov @timesredbox PM will want an election, but Labour will refuse, saying he shouldn't be allowed to choose a date for party advantage (or something)
@YouGov @timesredbox So Johnson could be stuck: he doesn't want to bring in an act to amend FTPA & set date by simple majority (which SNP might support), because opposition could pass amdts, eg enfranchising EU citizens independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
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More from @JohnRentoul see all

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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Revised text of withdrawal agreement here ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…
And revised political declaration is here ec.europa.eu/commission/pub…
Here is the consent mechanism in the withdrawal agreement ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…
Read 3 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
My latest on the numbers in the House of Commons independent.co.uk/independentpre…
(Updated.) If there is a deal & DUP support it, it could pass the Commons:
286 MPs voted for May’s deal on 29 March
-1 Brecon (Lib Dem gain)
-2 MPs (eg Amber Rudd) who say Johnson’s deal is worse
+25 of 28 Tory Eurosceptics
+6 Lab/Lib Dem
+10 DUP
324 = majority of 13
If the DUP vote against, the majority against the deal would be 7: Johnson would need 4 more votes than my estimates, from soft Brexiters and Labour (can't see he would get more Spartans without the DUP)
Read 14 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
If there is a deal & DUP support it, it should pass the Commons:
286 MPs voted for May's deal on 29 March
-1 Brecon (Lib Dem gain)
-2 ?MPs like A Rudd who say Johnson's deal is worse
+20 of 28 Spartans
+15 Lab (S Kinnock & co) incl 1 Lib Dem (N Lamb)
+10 DUP
328 = majority of 17
My calculations excl 7 Sinn Fein, 4 Speaker & deputies, 4 tellers commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Deta…
A DUP-backed deal could get more than 20/28 Tory Spartans (Eurosceptics who voted against May's deal 3x); but poss fewer than 15 extra Lab/Lib Dem votes (S Kinnock's MPs for a Deal group + G Stringer, K Hoey)
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
New.

ComRes poll of 20,000 people suggests that 54% of Brits favour honouring the 2016 referendum result

When 'don't knows' are excluded 54% back Leave options, 46% Remain

ComRes/Jeremy Vine debate #Brexit
"The public are split over whether they support or oppose Boris Johnson’s position that the UK should leave the EU on October 31st, with or without a deal. 43% support. 44% oppose. 13% don’t know."
On the question of No Deal, British adults are significantly more likely to say that the UK leaving the EU on a No Deal basis would be bad for the UK (49%), rather than good (23%) or no difference (15%)
Read 3 tweets
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Anthony Wells
@anthonyjwells
A longish thread about trying to explain the differences in party support - primarily Labour - in the polls.
It is often very difficult to get to the bottom of the differences between polls. There is rarely one big, easy simple answer, it's normally a bit of lots of little, different to explain things. Hence stupid & simple explanations prosper.
One current cause seems to be different approaches to past vote weighting. Most pollsters* weight by how people voted at the last election (ensuring that the sample has 44% people who voted Conservative in 2017, 41% Labour in 2017 and so on)
Read 18 tweets
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Lewis Baston
@lewis_baston
I am not expecting the Conservatives to be ‘wiped out’ in the local elections. Incremental losses from a good set of results for them in 2015 but not doomsday.
1. Nobody else is positively popular. The last wipeout in this set of seats was 1995 at the crest of the Blair wave.
2. National polling shows Con losing support to options that won’t be available in the local elections. Most English council elections will be between Con, Lab, Lib Dem and possibly some Independents and Greens. Trad Con voters will probably revert to Con (but not in EP vote)
Read 9 tweets
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WeThePeople #ForTheMany #DangerousHero #JC4PM2019
@gaurangmorjaria
#poll If there was a Snap General Election, who would you vote for?

(For other parties, please vote them in comments)

Please RT once Voted! 😃
1997: Blair 13.5mn votes
1997-2015: Blairites/ Others lost 180 seats & 5mn voters
2017: Corbyn 12.8mn votes/ Gained 32

2019:

add first time voters (75% of those who vote, vote for Labour)

Subtract 2% of the population, 80% of whom vote Tories!

Labour Landslide on the cards!
Lab’s share of vote could be 14.5+mn

Once we take into account first time voters- 16 or under at 2017

first time voters -never voted before, disenchanted by Blair years whilst

removing Tory support -loss of voters due to old age

=> Lab will gain 100+ seats from Tories alone
Read 32 tweets
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Paul Johnston
@PaulDJohnston
[Thread] Broken politics in the UK

I don't think Labour is going to win the next GE. I also don't think Corbyn is going to be beaten in any leadership election because the membership is firmly behind him.

Labour as a political force is toast
This causes a problem. The Conservatives are also split. They aren't really electable either. If they do win it's because of the inept Labour showing not because of their leadership. They are struggling to hold together too.
So where does this leave centrists?

The Lib Dems are nowhere. They've been punched in the face by the electorate over tuition fees multiple times now and I don't see that changing.

They are a spent force. They have no power.
Read 12 tweets
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David Carretta
@davcarretta
#Brexit: martedì potrebbe iniziare l'uscita di Uk senza accordo.

Tutti i governi Ue si stanno preparando con avvertimenti a cittadini, amministrazioni, imprese. Alcuni assumono migliaia di persone per le dogane.

Forse mi son perso qualcosa. Ma il governo italiano che fa?
Facciamo un esempio: in Italia risiedono 28.168 cittadini britannici.

Dopo la Brexit diventeranno extra-comunitari. Cosa ne facciamo in caso di no-deal? Tutti espulsi con foglio di via il 30 marzo?

Oppure li facciamo votare alle elezioni comunali come ora?
Un alto esempio banalotto: l'Italia esporta 760 milioni di euro di vino, di cui 300 milioni di prosecco.

In caso di no-deal servono doganieri per le pratiche di esportazione. E chi glielo dice ai trevigiani che devono prendersi un broker a Dover per sdoganare?
Read 10 tweets

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