Thread by @JohnRentoul

My latest on the numbers in the House of Commons independent.co.uk/independentpre…

(Updated.) If there is a deal & DUP support it, it could pass the Commons:
286 MPs voted for May’s deal on 29 March
-1 Brecon (Lib Dem gain)
-2 MPs (eg Amber Rudd) who say Johnson’s deal is worse
+25 of 28 Tory Eurosceptics
+6 Lab/Lib Dem
+10 DUP
324 = majority of 13

If the DUP vote against, the majority against the deal would be 7: Johnson would need 4 more votes than my estimates, from soft Brexiters and Labour (can't see he would get more Spartans without the DUP)

Haven't yet heard an ex-Tory soft Brexiter sure to vote against, or Lab/Lib Dem certain to vote for, but most likely: S Champion, K Hoey, S Kinnock, N Lamb, R Smeeth, G Stringer

If the deal is heading for defeat on Sat, what about an amendment for a new referendum? My estimate: in favour, 290; against, 328; not voting, 21 docs.google.com/document/d/1cy…

Referendum possible only if Johnson goes for it, I think; which is just possible if he can't have an election

And I don't think Labour MPs are ready to vote for an election yet en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p…

The Parliament That Likes To Say No:
Deal: no
Referendum: no
Election: no

With DUP voting against, deal could pass the Commons only if:
286 MPs voted for May’s deal on 29 March
-1 Brecon (Lib Dem gain)
+28 Tory Eurosceptics
+7 additional Lab/Lib Dem
320 = majority of 1

That means *all* Spartans have to vote for it, P Bone, O Paterson, J Redwood included; plus R Campbell, S Champion, S Kinnock, N Lamb, R Smeeth, L Smith, G Snell, G Stringer, of whom only Campbell confirmed

Also: Jo Johnson would count as one of the 7 if he voted for the deal – he was a pro-EU vote against under May

OK, put Peter Bone down as a yes; but what about @AnneMarieMorris?

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1184837909293289473?s=20

@AnneMarieMorris And note this calculation requires Norman Lamb & 6 *additional* Lab/ex-Lab MPs (in addition to I Austin, K Barron, R Cooper, F Field, J Fitzpatrick, C Flint, J Mann, who voted for May's deal)

@AnneMarieMorris And Lady Hermon, who voted for May's deal, seemed pretty unhappy with Johnson's proposals: has she said anything today?