Thread by @Usherwood

Let's have a quick run-through of how the 'Johnson deal' differs from the 'May deal'

Spoiler: it doesn't, all that much

1/

BIG caveat: we've still not seen the text of the former, but let's extrapolate from what we do know

2/

UK government's proposal on 2 Oct was for a new protocol on Northern Ireland

gov.uk/government/pub…

that's not nearly the whole Withdrawal Agreement

3/

I know you read back last November, but in case you've forgotten, that's the 600(ish) pages, setting out terms for the UK's departure from the EU

gov.uk/government/pub…

4/

The WA covers various areas, but we know of no current proposals to change the following elements:
- citizens' rights
- financial liabilities (the 'divorce bill' if you really must)
- transition arrangements
- institutions for managing withdrawal

5/

together that makes up about 300 of the 600 pages (h/t @CSBarnard24)

6/

@CSBarnard24 Yes, the protocol on NI is under discussion, and looks likely to change form in some extent, but it's not nearly a wholesale recasting of the WA

(and so doesn't address the many other problems raised with May's text by MPs)

7/

@CSBarnard24 But there's more

Listening to @BBCPM, talk of how new text means big change for future relationship

Not quite

8/

@CSBarnard24 @BBCPM A detour here to remind you that the WA is only one (smallish) part of 'Brexit'

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1030380052930809858?s=20

9/

@CSBarnard24 @BBCPM WA just gets you out of the EU, but leaves future open.

The attached Political Declaration sets out some ideas for that future

10/

@CSBarnard24 @BBCPM May's deal talking about using backstop as basis for future, implying closer relationship

Johnson's letter with his proposals points to a much looser Free Trade Agt

But neither was/is fixed by that text

11/

@CSBarnard24 @BBCPM In May's case, unless and until close relationship was in place, backstop applied (in full/part), but no obligation to have that close deal

For Johnson, nothing to preclude closer relationship

12/

@CSBarnard24 @BBCPM On this, it's effectively no more than a change of starting assumption, but neither model precludes alternative approaches, because it has to be negotiated/agreed at the time (i.e. the future)

13/

@CSBarnard24 @BBCPM In short, Johnson's deal is only substantial different (we assume) on backstop provisions, and even then I'd be surprised if a lot of text didn't reappear

/end