Thread by @Usherwood

Back to Brexit stuff

Who needs what to 'agree' it?

1/

Briefly, to agree an Art.50 deal, you need:
- qualified majority of EU states
- simple majority of EP
- approval of UK, currently meaning:
- Meaningful Vote
- passage of WA Bill
- completion of CRAG requirements

2/

When all those things have happened, then you have the necessary legal conditions for a Withdrawal Agreement to come into effect

3/

As you'll note, that's a lot of work, so maybe we can get by on a more indicative basis?

Not really

4/

Without a full legal text, EU states and EP are very unlikely to give general clearance

states will want to run full legal checks
EP only votes formally once, so won't use that to pass vaguenesses

5/

Likewise, Commons (in its current formation) will want to see a full text, to check gvt isn't selling anyone short

Theoretically possible to run MV without a full text, but w/o WAB/CRAG that has no legal meaning

6/

All this matters because WA needs to be effective in both UK and EU legal terms, otherwise it doesn't work

This is also why if UK makes ratification subject to a referendum, EU will say UK must stay in until that's done

7/

So, while we're seeing plenty of negotiation, until there's a full legal text on a WA, there's not going to be an agreement on a WA

/end