Why is Johnson's deal stalled by DUP? 1/ Once it moved from "vague ideas" to a legal text, putting NI into EU customs union represents the *fact* of shared sovereignty and promise of a united Ireland this century ...
2/ So this is not just money-grubbing by the DUP ... it is, and should be, existential for Ulster unionism... Johnson/Cummings prepared to disintegrate UK to get Britain out of the EU in name only...
3/ Varadkar's stock soaring in 🇮🇪 because he forced Johnson's half baked "two borders" into a single border in the Irish Sea... all the complex customs and VAT technicalities can't hide this... so it's crunch time for Unionism...
4/ For the rest of us: look at Wigan, Merthyr, Govan - could these places do with £1bn? Could their MPs do with having a veto over policy? It's time that Brits understood that the UK, only formed in 1921, was a temporary fix and that this deal signals a different end-state...
5/ In @FeileBelfast in Belfast last year I discussed with the Republican Mvt how to learn from the pro-Indy Scottish left and the Catalans and adopt a cosmopolitan nationalism that can respond to the new predicament of Unionists in NI...
6/ ... so now what? The "consent" issue in Stormont is non-technical ... if the DUP does not get the ability to pull NI out of the customs union then it's basically a forever solution - it's the backstop with the ECJ in charge
7/ ... no amount of money will buy the DUP off having a veto over renewing the customs union. My sense is that Barnier's team, in its hurry to give Johnson a deal, didn't understand this...
8/ Let's remember there is no Stormont for a reason: the anti-Unionist community plus the Protestant middle class were at the limits of their tolerance for these nutcases trying to keep NI in the early 20th century
9/ if Johnson gets a "deal" it won't be a legal text - because it is the reality of ceding sovereignty to Dublin that has triggered this non-buyable response from DUP. Finally...
10/ ... If we win Kyle-Wilson on Saturday I predict a MAJORITY in NI would reject the deal in a referendum.
