EU response to the DUP refusal to accept the draft Brexit agreement as it stands is: this is first and foremost a problem for the UK /1
France's Europe Minister has also responded that France is 'ready for all scenarios on Brexit' - meaning that France is ready for a no deal Brexit if need be. Subtext:'The EU has given a lot in this round of negotiations. If you push more, be ready that we may opt for no deal' /2
DUP had Theresa May over a barrel at a similarly crunch/high profile/in front of EU leaders moment in December 2017 when she was preparing to sign off on a Joint Report (interim agreement) while sitting inside the European Commission building with Jean Claude Juncker /3
Talk here was that the PM was planning to have a big "I've done this deal" moment here in Brussels ahead of the leaders summit officially starting at 3pm local. The draft agreement text was then scheduled to be item no1 of summit discussion../4
EU negotiators are certainly not planning to rush forward now with suggestions on what to offer the DUP. Accepted wisdom is the EU always has an extra "something else" up its sleeve in negotiations BUT the EU makes concessions that it feels are to its advantage.. /5
Draft text agreed at technical level between EU+UK negotiators does include concessions by EU eg allowing dual customs regime on NIreland (where NI leaves EU customs union but follows EU customs rules). EU wont agree to text changes if feels exposes single mkt/NI peace process/6
EU will look to the PM first and foremost to sort DUP issue out. Dont forget: this is a 2day summit. All 27 EU leaders together in Brussels for 48 hours. Potentially the PM can delay his arrival and EU leaders would still have time to sign off on draft agreement. /7
DUP had wanted a veto over NI being 'separate' from rest of UK in that it would follow EU customs rules+regulations after Brexit. The EU refused. Current text allows opt out for NI power-sharing assembly BUT only after a number of years +ONLY if Stormont is actually sitting../8
This is a massive difference to the backstop in Theresa May's deal which was written up as being temporary. The new text envisages a potential for NI to have different customs and regulatory mechanism from rest of UK permanently. This of course is huge for the DUP /9
