So another big week in Brexit. And while I suspect based on others work the Government has the numbers to pass the deal as it stands, their behaviour, commitments, and possible amendments to the Withdrawal Bill could make a huge difference to the next few years of Brexit... 1/
Recall the deal is mostly about the UK's Withdrawal, and what this means in money, citizens rights etc. There are a few elements of future relationship, obviously for Northern Ireland, plus recognition of EU Geographical Indications to annoy the US FTA lobby. Not the future 2/
The big talk is of a Labour amendment to support a Customs Union. Unless this is in place of the deal agreed, which I don't think it is, I'm struggling to see why in negotiating terms this need have an impact. Next phase of Brexit issue surely? 3/ theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
There's also talk of the Government being forced to extend the transition period of an agreement to 2022. That could change the agreement as written. It would be sensible as no FTA can be agreed in 12 months, and would prevent no-deal then. One to watch perhaps? 4/
Typically at this stage of a negotiation you don't want Parliament making demands, changes like this. So, like the US, you build an elaborate system to ensure elected members have involvement through the process but only a yes / no vote at the end. Gov rejected this approach 5/
Another thing then to watch is the Government's promises for how the next stage of talks should work. Is there going to be a detailed mandate, with Parliamentary vote, based on detailed impact assessment? Or is Government going to carry on trying to ignore Parliament? 6/
Hence how Government responds to pressures this week will make a huge difference. Continue to treat Parliament as an obstruction, make no meaningful promises, and they're simply setting up the post-Brexit battles, but hoping it will be different because they have a majority 7/
Trouble for any Government is that a majority is still not going to guarantee support for an international negotiation. There are 50+ Conservative MPs who will be happier with no-deal in 1 year than extension or the inevitable compromises of trade agreement reality 8/
An FTA is not a destination for a UK-EU relationship. It is a type of agreement, which can mean anything from retaining tariffs and obstacles to market, through to widespread regulatory alignment. Tension over content is inevitable 9/ ecipe.org/blog/isolation…
For political reasons the Government may prefer conflict with Parliament this week, and even an election rather than accept opposition led amendments. That will be subject of the ball-by-ball commentary. But every time they do, the next stages get harder 10/
An argument we never hear - if Brexit means striking out on our own, we should do it properly, its a tough world out there. Sadly Johnson and Cummings appear to be the adolescents wanting to bully 11 year olds to show they're tough enough. Bumpy road ahead... 11/ end
