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CER
@CER_EU
, 5 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Big week for #Brexit – here's thread with @CER_EU recent thinking: what happens if/when MPs vote against @theresa_may deal tomorrow; how a UK-EU customs union is likely if deal is passed; how Brexit will hit UK services exports; and how much leave vote has already hurt UK economy
1 - @theresa_may deal is heading for defeat in parliament tomorrow – that could lead to no deal, the negotiation of a different deal, a general election, a second referendum – or MPs swallowing the package at 2nd attempt, @CER_Grant sets out the options: cer.eu/insights/what-…
2 - Theresa May’s Brexit deal offers some crumbs to Tory hardliners, the DUP and soft Brexiteers. But if the deal passes through parliament, a UK-EU customs union is likely, @JohnSpringford explains why: cer.eu/insights/brexi…
3 - Even if the UK entered into an ambitious and comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, leaving the single market would mean new restrictions on British services exports, @SamuelMarcLowe explains: cer.eu/publications/a…
4 - The UK economy is already about 2.5% smaller than it would have been if Britons had voted to remain in 2016, according to @JohnSpringford calculations: cer.eu/insights/cost-…
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CER
@CER_EU
Where is the European Research Group's plan for #Brexit? We're eager to see your alternative to #Chequers
So @SteveBakerHW tells @SkyNews aim is an “advanced free trade agreement” with cooperation on security and other areas - says it's not backbenchers’ job to dictate policy to govt but warns of catastrophic split with Chequers...
…says colleagues have v clear ideas about what ought to be done & how it should be delivered – but instead of publishing full plan they will focus on a narrow range of issues starting with Northern Ireland – says they won’t be driven when time is not right.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
No10 says EU must decide if it will release a letter of assurances before the vote on Tuesday but EU sources tell me they are waiting for the go-ahead advice from Downing Street 1
The letter could have been released Saturday night ahead of No10 Sunday media blitz but wasn’t .. It could be released tonight or tomorrow ahead of vote .. OR EU/No10 may decide better not since 2
The EU letter will I’m told contain assurances/explanations of current deal and nothing new. The letter would come from Juncker/Tusk in Brussels and they can’t change the #Brexit deal without negotiation with and go ahead from 27 EU leaders 3
Read 20 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Is the big #brexit climbdown beginning?

Are the Brexiteers about to decide to 'buy into' the idea that Mrs May can fix the Irish border with technology? That unicorns *do* exist?

Mad? Let me explain... 1/Thread
First @tnewtondunn reports Brexiteers like Iain Duncan Smith and co are 'biting' on a No 10 briefing that "special arrangements" could fix the Irish border - ie 'technology'



Then FT's Laura Hughes says 'Gang of Five' are too /2

@tnewtondunn Wow. Amazing....suddenly, after all these months of negotiating it seems like Number 10 has put it's hand down the back of the sofa and found a 'fix' for the border issue that has bedevilled these talks for all this time.

I love this quote particularly... /3
Read 24 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
I think we can now say with certainty that no #Brexit deal May brings from Brussels commands a majority on her side of the house.

Any controls / backstop in Irish Sea - DUP opposes. There are 10 DUP MPs.

1/9
Any attempt to keep the UK in a Customs Union with the EU: hard core Brexiters in the ERG oppose. There are 40 odd of them.

2/9
So Theresa May’s calculation then is as follows: can she get enough MPs from other parties (essentially Labour) to make up the shortfall?

3/9
Read 9 tweets
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Thangam Debbonaire
@ThangamMP
Thread re Prime Minister on #BBCtoday @BBCr4today re #EU just now: she got her catchphrase in early and followed the classic media training advice 'repeat, repeat, repeat'. 3 years ago it was 'Long-term economic plan', now it is 'when we leave the EU free movement will end'
or 'when we leave the EU we will take back control of our money, our laws and our borders'. All of which is based on fallacy - claim of net out-flow of money has been demonstrated clearly many times, we elect our MEPs and the MPs who debate the EU regs and we have border controls
Astonishingly disdainful way she thinks of UK workers - they will be trained for the low skilled jobs currently done by people from EU27 countries, but we will still allow people in if they will have salary of £50k. She had no plan for immediate recruitment e.g. for care homes
Read 25 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So @BorisJohnson has put out his "plan" for #Brexit.

Predictably, it has had holes picked in it - since there are indeed plenty of mighty assumptions in the 'plan'.

But I fear that misses the point. This is a political document, not a technical one. 1/

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@BorisJohnson And when you read it in that light, it becomes rather more persuasive.

Brexit is indeed a muddle and a mess. The British frog is indeed being boiled. Brexit probably always was/is more binary than both sides have properly allowed. /2
@BorisJohnson I am not at all sure Boris is right that Whitehall and the EU conspired to keep the UK in a customs union, for example, but that will be a powerful anti-narrative if that's where we end up.

FWIW my conversations in Europe suggest rather different. /3
Read 6 tweets
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Chuka Umunna
@ChukaUmunna
THREAD: Today's events in Westminster - which relate to the process and not the substance of Brexit - do not change the fundamental mess and chaos of Brexit. The UK is heading for a bad Brexit deal but its not a done deal - a lot will happen between now and the Autumn. /1
Its disappointing the so called "Grieve 2" amendment did not pass this afternoon (I,of course, voted for it) but significant that Ministers were forced to climb down and issue a statement acknowledging Parliament's vital role at the end of the process. /2
There are still 5 #Brexit related Bills still to make their way through Parliament which are legally binding and amendable: Customs Bill; Trade Bill; Fisheries Bill; Agriculture Bill; and, Immigration Bill. There will also be a huge number of statutory instruments to pass too. /3
Read 10 tweets

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