Thread by @pmdfoster

Right. Final wrap up thread of a big week for #brexit where there was rather more heat than light. Where are we now? Where might it lead? 1/thread

First the state of the 'talks'/negotiations.

Despite a lot of (over) excitement in London and some over-reading of the Juncker interview, we are still pretty much where we were. /2

The UK is still posing it's 'slice and dice' backstop.

The 'non-papers' they presented are, per EU sources, basically a max-fac reheat of 2017.

They were dismissed as "magical thinking" then and as @simoncoveney said this morning, they don't work now. /3

@simoncoveney So while everyone is running round saying they "want a deal", both sides are clear they "want a deal" on their own terms.

Don't see EU/Ireland accepting a MaxFac border solution, even with SPS alignment. Too many checks, too much infrastructure. /4

@simoncoveney So there will be lots more chat (no-one wants to be seen not to be talking) but sooner or later the substance gap is likely to emerge as unbridgeable.

Why, after all, would this stuff work now, when it didn't work two years ago? /5

@simoncoveney The @BorisJohnson response to this was that 'we'll threaten 'em with a 'no deal' and that will make it different.

Same ideas, we'll just bully the EU into accepting that trade border in Ireland, which isn't that big a deal anyway.

Trouble, I fear that dog don't hunt now. /6

@simoncoveney @BorisJohnson The Benn Act means Labour has scant incentive to do a deal to bail out Johnson and accept hard Tory Brexit.

It also means EU/Dublin will assume we'll have extension/election not a 'no deal'. And I'm not sure they'd cave on Ireand principle anway. /7

@simoncoveney @BorisJohnson The UK also underestimated how much political room to move @LeoVaradkar had on the backstop. He can't sanction customs checks north of the border, and related controls.

In short, the whole 'do or die' routine rather back-fired.

So what now? /8

@simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar So here is where it gets interesting, but also necesarily speculative.

The reason the EU is making warm noises is not because they like UK 'non-papers', but because they can see Johnson is utterly cornered and hope he might 'pivot' to a manageable deal. /9

@simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar I had a look here at what might be the doable options 'threading the needle' between what is negotiable in Brussels and saleable in London.

But in truth, I think there is first a much bigger question to address? Why would @BorisJohnson
risk it? /10

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1173537249348263936?s=20

@simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar Because step back from the minutiae of this 'deal' issue and what is clear is that we are in a General Election campaign.

This is not a government, its a campaign machine.

So if view Johnson's decision post Party Conference through that political prism, then what? /11

@simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar The EU's rejected slice n dice and he can:

a) pivot to a deal, some version of NI-only, or maybe extended transition etc and in doing so take a HUGE risk.

I don't know about you, but I don't trust those Labour votes materialising. /12

@simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar And if they don't, then Boris Johnson goes into the next election have BOTH pivoted towards a compromise his #brexit base are gonna hate AND failed to meet his Oct 31 'do or die' deadline. That's a double whammy. /13

@simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar Would it not be more politically rationale not to muddy the waters?

To stand rock solid on the backstop and keep burnishing those hard-Brexit, bucaneering Britain credentials and enter the inevitable election campaign unsullied by compromise? /14

@simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar In short, there is a notional prize of doing a deal and getting #Brexit over the line by October 31 before the election is appealing...but that's probably only possible with a deal that enrages the base and anyway has a high chance of failing in London. /15

@simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar Seems to me that @SteveBarclay Madrid speech fits that pattern...keep tilting at the notional deal, and then - come October 17 Council - you can call the EU all manner of names as you prepare to hit the campaign trail demanding a majority to get the job done. /16

@simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @SteveBarclay I guess all will be revealed after Party Conference and at the point when the 'negotiations' hit the customs buffer...

To pivot, or not to pivot, that is the question...Parliament has already nobbled you once, why give them the satisfaction of doing so again? /17

@simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @SteveBarclay I hear the Letwin plan of using an extension to create a 'zombie' government while Parliament passes a Withdrawal Bill subject to a referendum, but that feels a stretch to me.

And once the extension is forced, will Labour really be able to shirk an election? /18

@simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @SteveBarclay At that point Johnson valiantly (after Court fights etc) loses the battle but seeks to rally #Brexit forces to his standard to win the war. /19

@simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar @SteveBarclay All of which makes me weary - and sceptical about talk of a deal; greater forces are at play here than the viability of customs technologies.

In short: Johnson is in a corner. My gut says he feints and counters, rather than sues for peace.

Good weekend all. 20/ENDS