Thread by @benrileysmith

The critical dynamic in whether Trump survives impeachment - will his senators have his back?
telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/10/1…

All signs point to a blockbuster 2 months to Christmas. First a House vote on impeachment (expected to be yes) then a Senate vote on removal.

67 of 100 senators need to vote for removal for it to happen. The Dems have 47. So at least 20 Republicans will need to flip for Trump to go.

That seems mighty unlikely right now. Romney the only one openly toying with removal. Plus, crucially, vast majority of GOP voters oppose removal right now.

But the silence over Ukraine [senators pivot to criticising impeachment process rather than defending his behaviour] and anger over Syria [where criticism is coming from the top, Mitch McConnell, down] are not good signs for W House.

Some Trump allies bullish - one former W H official under Trump told me there was "zero chance" of removal.

Others less so. Fox News host Chris Wallace said a plugged-in Republican put the chance at 20%.

Relationship b/w Trump and Republican senators has always been a marriage of convenience. He needed them to pass his laws, they knew he had their base and could be used to secure priorities like Supreme Court justices.

In short, the fate of the Trump presidency now lies in the hands of GOP senators who never wanted him in the first place.